US Midwest Weather
Freese Notis -- A look back at the month of July shows that it was a favourable month of weather with regards to corn pollination for the bulk of the Corn Belt. Certainly temperatures were not a concern, with most of the Corn Belt region recording temperatures that were just a "smidge" below their normal levels.
Rainfall was the most notable feature of the month, and as has been the case since the growing season began it was a case of "too much of a good thing" in some places (especially northern Missouri and southern Iowa where there were a lot of places recording two to as much as four times their normal July totals). Below normal rainfall in July was most prevalent in Minnesota (and thus rains there yesterday were very beneficial, though very strong winds accompanying that rain likely put a lot of corn on the ground), Ohio, and northeastern Indiana.
Going forward into August of course is a hot start to the month. The worst of the heat still looks be in area west and south of the Missouri River, where there could be some places reaching 100 degrees Sunday and Monday. The least amount of heat in the Corn Belt will be in Ohio, as Tuesday may be their only day with high temperatures above the 95 degree mark. Delta crop areas look to really sizzle, with places there getting to 100 degrees today, 100-plus degree temperatures there through Tuesday, and any real notable cooling their holding off until about August 8.
The heat is going to break in the Corn Belt as we head into the middle of next week, with temperatures likely averaging a bit below normal in much of the region for August 7 to August 10. With the cool-down will come a rainfall threat for all of the Nation's midsection. That rain starts in the far northwestern Corn Belt by no later than Tuesday morning, and stays in the northern Corn Belt through Wednesday morning. The rain shifts to the central Plains, southern Corn Belt and Delta for the second half of next week, with weather models today suggesting that these will be the areas to see the best amounts and coverage.
US Midwest Weather Latest
(Freese Notis) -- Weekend rainfall and forecasts for continued favorable weather coming up kept pressure on corn and soybean prices overnight.
Significant about weekend weather was the development of rainfall in a pocket of the northwestern Corn Belt that had missed that rain through early Friday morning. Sioux Falls picked up close to two inches of rain through Sunday morning with a couple of rain events, with Worthington, MN picking up over two inches. That "dry pocket" then got filled in even more late yesterday and overnight as significant rains fell right along the Nebraska/South Dakota border.
This has been quite a stretch of wet weather for a lot of places in the northwestern Corn Belt; seven stations that I track in that area have had at least two inches of rain since last Wednesday, with another four stations recording over three inches. Eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois were seeing strong thunderstorms move through early on this Monday morning (storms that left behind a lot of wind damage in the Interstate 80 corridor of Iowa; there was an unofficial report of 100 mile per hour winds to the northwest of Des Moines near the town of Dawson).
Rains will be most prevalent in the south-central Corn Belt during the next couple of days, certainly beneficial there given that very little rain has fallen in that area over the past week and it has been hot (99 at St. Louis yesterday, and something similar may be seen today).
A northwest-to-southeast moving rain system is forecast to impact the Midwest later this week as well.
Temperatures for this work-week, especially after today, look cool for eastern parts of the region with highs no better than the 80s or even 70s. Heat that was expected to encroach on the far western/northwestern Corn Belt for late this week looks very muted, and the outlook for next week does not look to feature big heat either.
Overall it is a forecast for the Corn Belt that looks favorable for the rest of this month, so it looks like we will be able to pollinate the bulk of the 2008 corn crop with favorable soil moisture and without extreme heat. That's a notable accomplishment, given how long the pollination season is this year (given the extended period of planting seen back in the spring).
US: Midwest weather latest
(Freese Notis) -- Rainfall coverage continued to expand in the northwestern Corn Belt over the past 24 hours. Areas of South Dakota to the north of Interstate 90, much of the southern third of Minnesota, southwestern Wisconsin, much of the northeastern half of Iowa, the southern half of Nebraska, and northern Kansas are the areas that have done quite well with rainfall (i.e. a half inch or better) over the past 24 hours. In that area in can find rainfall totals of more than an inch for Mason City, Spencer, and Cedar Rapids; and more than two inches for Des Moines, Ames, Fort Dodge, and Waterloo.
Things have quieted down quite a bit early on this Friday, with most of the rain found over northeastern Kansas. However, with the frontal boundary responsible for this week's rain still well to the north on the Corn Belt and still just slowly sagging southward, the rainfall chances are far from over. There are rainfall chances for the entire Corn Belt, but especially the northwestern half, for today right through the end of the weekend and severe weather looks possible on any of those days. Flash flood watches have been posted for southeastern Iowa and southeastern Wisconsin in anticipation of more heavy rain for those areas.
We have not gotten all of the northwestern Corn Belt the rain that they need (places like Sioux Falls, Norfolk, and Sioux City have recorded little so far this week) but at least that area still does have more near-term rainfall chances.
Models are not in good agreement on next week's outlook, but it is highly unlikely that it will be completely dry and I will maintain my contention that the best rains shift to more northeastern parts of the region for especially the middle and latter parts of next week. Temperatures will continue to be warm, but we are still probably a week away from any potential for extreme heat. Middle 80s to low 90s will be seen on most days from today through next Thursday. I still target the July 25th time frame as one where temperatures may go to more extreme levels, but again will emphasize that to be the case mainly for western and northwestern parts of the region.
US Midwest Weather - Near Perfect, But Maturity Lags
(Freese Notis) -- Crop condition ratings released this week showed that the Nation's corn and soybean crops continue to grind their way back towards respectability. Corn ratings at 49 percent good/15 percent excellent compares to ratings at just 48 percent good/9 percent excellent just four weeks ago and is not far below last year's crop which was 46 percent good/18 percent excellent at this same time. Historically this is a time frame when corn ratings have generally held steady or even dipped a bit, which makes the improvement seen over the past month that much more impressive. Soybean ratings did not improve all that much this week with the rating of 48 percent good/11 percent excellent, but has shown some improvement since the middle of June (when it was 49 percent good and 7 percent excellent) and is also not far below the ratings of last year (49 percent good and 13 percent excellent at this same time).
Chances are good that we will see at least steady, if not improved, ratings for next week's report. Coming into this week, clearly the area of the Corn Belt that needed the rain the most was the northwestern part of the region, and that same area is in a near-perfect set-up for a widespread soaking for the middle and latter parts of this week. I still expect that this activity will get kicked off tonight, and very well could last through a good part of the coming weekend. South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and northwestern Iowa look to be target areas for rains that will eventually total at least one to two inches and locally much, much heavier. It is going to be a while before any of that rain works into southeastern parts of the Midwest, but excellent rains in a lot of that area last weekend means that crops should improve there this week despite the lack of rain.
Rather than crop ratings, maybe the biggest fear right now should be how slow the crops are maturing. Corn crops in most of the Midwest have barely begun to tassel, while normally we are well over one-third of the way through that stage and we were around halfway through that stage last year at this time. Agronomists have determined that it takes about 60 days for corn to reach maturity after the time its starts to silk. We have just 13 percent of the Nation's corn crop silking this week, so we will have 87 percent of the crop maturing this year sometime after September 11 (versus the 5-year average of 64 percent and 50 percent with last year's crop).
US Midwest weather latest
(Freese Notis) -- For a lot of places in the Midwest, the weather over the next two to three days will be about as hot as it has been so far this summer, but it still looks like that heat is not going to last for very long. Especially areas west of Interstate 35 will reach the 90 degree mark for today's high temperature, but highs above the 90 degree mark should be pretty common for tomorrow just about anywhere in the Corn Belt.
That heat is pressed southward into just the southern third of the region for Saturday, and the cooler weather seen that day in the northern Corn Belt looks to dominate the entire region then for Sunday through about Tuesday (or even Wednesday as it pertains to eastern parts of the region). Especially the northeastern half of the Midwest could see two to even three days during that time frame in which high temperatures do not climb above the 80 degree mark.
We will see warming temperatures for later next week, with some signs that notable heat could be impacting especially western parts of the region for July 20 and beyond.
Rain that fell in the Midwest the past 24 hours was extremely spotty in nature (most places got nothing), and a few isolated thundershowers were still shown in parts of the region early on this Thursday (with a more concentrated area of rain found in northeastern Nebraska). Almost any location in the Corn Belt could see a widely scattered storm over the next 24 hours as warmer air works into the region, then a strong cold front diving southeastward will be the next threat of rain, first for northwestern part of the region (tomorrow and tomorrow night) and then in the southeastern areas (Saturday and Saturday night).
There could be a fair amount of severe weather activity with the cold frontal passage, but widespread rains of more than a half inch probably will be most common only in areas near the Great Lakes. The set-up for rainfall for the middle and latter parts of the next week is looking pretty decent for northern and northwestern parts of the region, which is an area that could use some rain right now (northern Nebraska, eastern South Dakota and all but extreme southeastern Minnesota have recorded below-normal rainfall over the past 30 days, with some places recording less than half of their normal totals during that period).
US Midwest Weather Outlook
(Freese Notis) -- While overnight rains in Missouri were heavy as expected (1.50 to 2.50 inch amounts common in much of the northern two-thirds of the state; a handful of counties were under flash-flood warnings), rains were heavier than expected in Michigan and northwestern Ohio.
Radar is estimating that anywhere from 2.50 to 5.00 inches of rain fell overnight in an area from just west of Grand Rapids southeastward to the Toledo area. I can confirm 3.36 inches of rain at Grand Rapids, and around 3.5 inches at Toledo. A few counties along the Michigan-Ohio border were still under flash flood warnings here late Thursday.
Rains will continue to press southward today so that they impact mainly areas in the Ohio River Valley, with areas along the Ohio River and points southward still having rain chances tomorrow.
For the bulk of the Corn Belt, the holiday weekend is looking dry and it still looks to be getting started on a cool note. Especially areas east of Interstate 35 will have a tough time seeing highs above the 80 degree mark for today right through Saturday.
Beyond that the weather maps continue to advertise a warmer trend on temperatures as we go into the middle of this month. That will especially be the case for the Missouri River Valley and points westward, with highs there potentially reaching the 90s on Sunday and again for Tuesday through largely the rest of next week.
The July 11-13 time frame could be one where those 90s spread eastward to cover a bigger part of the Midwest.
The next rainfall threat for the region is still expected for roughly the Monday/Tuesday time frame of next week, and I still think that the models are having a tough time in depicting exactly how that event will play itself out. It will likely be a situation where some places in the Midwest will get some very nice amounts, but a lot of places will get nothing at all. As a guess (and that is exactly what it is...a guess), the area along the Iowa/Minnesota border and points eastward might fair the best on totals and coverage. Rain chances for later next week likely will favor the eastern Corn Belt versus the west.
US Midwest Weather
(Freese Notis) -- Small areas of thunderstorms dotting the landscape over the western Corn Belt early on this Wednesday heralded the arrival of the next weather system to impact the Midwest. It continues to look like a situation where the southern Corn Belt will see far heavier rains and much better coverage than the north. Those rains in the south get started tonight and last through tomorrow before ending early on Friday. I still think that large sections of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio see more than an inch of rain from this event, with localized rains exceeding two or even three inches. Flash flood watches have already been posted for southwestern Missouri, and we may see a few more of them issued when fresh National Weather Service forecasts are released this afternoon.
The Monday/Tuesday time frame of next week is the other period to expect a significant rainfall threat for the region during the ten-day forecast period. Right now the weather models are not in especially good agreement on how that event will evolve; my best guess is that the best rains at that time are east of the Interstate 35 corridor.
It still looks to be an unusually cool start to the holiday weekend for the Midwest. Below normal temperatures will dominate the region for tomorrow and that will last through Saturday. The 4th of July may feature highs not climbing above the 80 degree mark in most of the Midwest.
After that though I do still see warmer-than-normal temperatures increasing in frequency for the region. Sunday and Monday should be warm days, with some low 90s showing up in far western and southwestern areas. Tuesday to Thursday of next week should be cooler again, but above-normal temperatures return to the western Corn Belt for July 11 and it may very well stay above normal there through the end of the two- week forecast.
Midwest weather outlook
(Freese Notis) -- Our "daily look" at "who got what and how much" with regards to rainfall in the Corn Belt shows that the heaviest totals since yesterday morning have been recorded in a strip from southeastern South Dakota southeastward through southeastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri, with northeastern Kansas being another area seeing locally heavy totals.
There were a handful of counties in Kansas and southeastern Iowa that were under flash flood warnings early on this Friday. Considerable rain was still falling in eastern Kansas early today, with scattered rains in southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, southeastern Iowa, and western Illinois.
A cold front will be advancing southeastern through the Corn Belt over the next 36 hours, and once it moves through we will see rainfall chances end for a while. Until it does though, roughly the eastern 75% of the Corn Belt will be under the threat of severe weather for today, with southern and eastern parts of the region still under the gun for tomorrow. The same areas that have the severe weather threat are the areas that have the best potential for locally heavy rains.
Welcome dry weather is forecast for the Midwest for Sunday and that should last through at least Wednesday of next week. Odds appear high that we will see another storm system working through for later next week, with the models in some disagreement on timing (some want to start the rains on July 3, others hold off until the July 4th holiday) and on the area to be favored for the rain (though they agree that whoever gets that rain in the end should see pretty decent totals).
Heat remains out of the forecast picture for the Midwest heading into the opening days of July. In fact, cooler-than-normal temperatures will certainly be the main feature for this weekend and into Tuesday or even Wednesday of next week. Beyond that we should see temperatures normalize, but heat that is going to be plaguing especially the Pacific Northwest over the next one to two weeks does not currently show any sign of moving eastward on a sustained basis.
US Midwest Weather Outlook
(Freese Notis) -- With the lack of inundating rains in the Corn Belt since about June 12th, we have seen corn and soybean crops in the region post a bit of a recovery from the overly wet conditions seen throughout much of the spring. That said, the improvement in corn ratings this week to 59 percent good to excellent and 57 percent good/excellent in soybeans is nothing to get excited about (as both crops are rated way below the levels of a year ago at this time) and shows that there are still real question marks about what yield potential we have left.
Crop ratings are now getting more presstime than planting progress, but I think that it is worth noting that this week's soybean planting progress at 91 percent done is the slowest since 1996 and suggests that farmers still have just under seven million acres of soybeans left to get in the ground. A part of that is double crop acreage, which may not go into the ground real soon due to a late start to the winter wheat harvest in the eastern Corn Belt (the harvest was well behind the 5-year average in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana).
I think that it is still a decent weather forecast coming up for the bulk of the Midwest. Through the next ten days to two weeks, extreme heat will be found in especially the western third of the Nation. At times we will likely see that heat attempt to make its way into the far western Corn Belt (Monday and Tuesday of next week will be examples of that) but it will be unable to maintain that presence for very long (this weekend, for example, will likely average a bit on the cool side of normal for much of the Midwest).
With regards to rainfall, the further east that you go in the Midwest, the better your rainfall chances look to be as we head into the opening days of July. That does not eliminate rainfall chances in the west though, as we've seen early on this Tuesday with thunderstorms overnight in Nebraska. There are daily chances for widely scattered thunderstorms in the Midwest for the rest of this work-week, with the best amounts and coverage probably coming with the arrival of a fairly strong cold front for Friday and Friday night. Severe weather looks possible through the end of the work-week as well, probably culminating with a significant outbreak on Friday.
US Midwest Weather Outlook
(Freese Notis) -- In a year that has featured its fair share of exciting weather for the Nation's midsection (whether it be heavy snow, ice storms, and cold weather lat winter, or severe weather and flooding in more recent weeks), upcoming weather actually looks fairly "unexciting" most of the time for that same area. The weather pattern coming up does not look excessively warm nor excessively cool; it does not look excessively wet nor excessively dry.
There will be rains scattered around the Corn Belt on every day during this work- week period, though the best rains and the best coverage will hold off until the end of the week when a fairly strong cold front enters the region. Especially areas east of Interstate 35 will see the best rains with that system, which probably total mostly on the order of 0.50 to 1.00 inches and locally heavier.
Eastern parts of the Corn Belt will probably be favored for whatever rain falls next week as well. Growing areas of the Delta and Southeast may not do all that well on rainfall over the next five to six days, but there are signs that those areas (but especially the Southeast) could evolve into a welcome wet weather pattern for the very end of this month and into the opening days of July.
It is not a totally dry weather pattern for the Plains winter wheat belt, but a widespread soaking rain is not forecast so look for there to be some fairly good progress made this week with regards to the winter wheat harvest. Spring wheat areas of the Northern Plains will see rains favoring the eastern half of that region over the next week.
Today and tomorrow are fairly cool in the Corn Belt, and temperatures next weekend look no better than normal. Conditions will be on the warm side of normal on other days, and that is particularly the case for the far western/northwestern Corn Belt and Northern Plains (Wednesday/Thursday of this week and Sunday/Monday of next week look quite warm in that area).
Midwest weather outlook
Freese Notis -- Significant rains over the weekend were confined to areas east of the Mississippi River where some spots picked up more than 2 inches. It was mostly in the 80s for highs (70s far north) on Saturday while Sunday's highs ranged from the 70s in MI to generally the 80s elsewhere.
The warmer temperatures are aiding the newly planted corn. The one thing that is certain over the next 10-15 days is that temperatures will remain on the warm side of normal for the majority of the Cornbelt. The only exception may be in the far northwest where temperatures will probably be close to normal on most days.
The warm temperatures will be helping the corn to catch up in its early growing cycle after the slow planting progress and the unseasonably cool weather. There will be plenty of rain the next several days across especially the northern half of the Cornbelt.
Later in the week and during the 6-10 day period, the emphasis of the big rains will be over the western Cornbelt. The reason for this is that a dome of high pressure aloft will be building over the southern and southeastern U.S. Therefore, the battle of air masses will be over the western Cornbelt and northern Plains. The southern Plains will see a lot of heat and drier than normal weather with this scenario. However, after the great rains in recent weeks, this warm weather will, if anything, be of benefit to the crop. It will help to mature it more rapidly. The soft-red winter wheat crop is also in excellent shape at this time.
Getting back to the Cornbelt, there will be some heat evolving for especially the southern and southwestern Cornbelt for the 6-10. Highs will likely reach to well up into the 90s on at least a few days. However, this is of no concern at this time after a very wet and cool spring. Besides, indications point to this heat abating during the 11-15 day period.
Midwest finally set for some warmer weather
Freese Notis--While too much rainfall this spring has draw most of the headlines in regards to a fairly poor start to 2008 corn and soybean crops in the Midwest, cooler-than-normal temperatures have been equally as much of a problem.
March temperatures of two to six degrees below normal, April readings of normal to five degrees below normal for areas west of the Mississippi River, and May temperatures on the order of two to six degrees below normal over the entire Midwest means that we could see the meteorological spring (which ends on May 31) rank among the twenty coolest ever recorded for parts of the Midwest.
What is notable about upcoming weather then, is the fact that we are going to see a shift towards extended periods of warmer-than-normal conditions for the first time in a long while. Cool weather of the middle of this week is really the only cool weather in the forecast through the first ten days of June. High temperatures in the 80s will return to much of the Corn Belt by Friday, with 80s probably even more common for Saturday. High temperatures of 75 to 85 degrees should then dominate into next week, though southwestern and southern parts of the region may even do a little better than that once in a while.
Weds forecast highs
Thurs forecast highs
Fri forecast highs
Sat forecast highs
Sun forecast highs
Mon forecast highs
