US Midwest Weather Outlook

(Freese Notis) -- While overnight rains in Missouri were heavy as expected (1.50 to 2.50 inch amounts common in much of the northern two-thirds of the state; a handful of counties were under flash-flood warnings), rains were heavier than expected in Michigan and northwestern Ohio.

Radar is estimating that anywhere from 2.50 to 5.00 inches of rain fell overnight in an area from just west of Grand Rapids southeastward to the Toledo area. I can confirm 3.36 inches of rain at Grand Rapids, and around 3.5 inches at Toledo. A few counties along the Michigan-Ohio border were still under flash flood warnings here late Thursday.

Rains will continue to press southward today so that they impact mainly areas in the Ohio River Valley, with areas along the Ohio River and points southward still having rain chances tomorrow.

For the bulk of the Corn Belt, the holiday weekend is looking dry and it still looks to be getting started on a cool note. Especially areas east of Interstate 35 will have a tough time seeing highs above the 80 degree mark for today right through Saturday.

Beyond that the weather maps continue to advertise a warmer trend on temperatures as we go into the middle of this month. That will especially be the case for the Missouri River Valley and points westward, with highs there potentially reaching the 90s on Sunday and again for Tuesday through largely the rest of next week.

The July 11-13 time frame could be one where those 90s spread eastward to cover a bigger part of the Midwest.

The next rainfall threat for the region is still expected for roughly the Monday/Tuesday time frame of next week, and I still think that the models are having a tough time in depicting exactly how that event will play itself out. It will likely be a situation where some places in the Midwest will get some very nice amounts, but a lot of places will get nothing at all. As a guess (and that is exactly what it is...a guess), the area along the Iowa/Minnesota border and points eastward might fair the best on totals and coverage. Rain chances for later next week likely will favor the eastern Corn Belt versus the west.