US Midwest Weather

(Freese Notis) -- Small areas of thunderstorms dotting the landscape over the western Corn Belt early on this Wednesday heralded the arrival of the next weather system to impact the Midwest. It continues to look like a situation where the southern Corn Belt will see far heavier rains and much better coverage than the north. Those rains in the south get started tonight and last through tomorrow before ending early on Friday. I still think that large sections of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio see more than an inch of rain from this event, with localized rains exceeding two or even three inches. Flash flood watches have already been posted for southwestern Missouri, and we may see a few more of them issued when fresh National Weather Service forecasts are released this afternoon.

The Monday/Tuesday time frame of next week is the other period to expect a significant rainfall threat for the region during the ten-day forecast period. Right now the weather models are not in especially good agreement on how that event will evolve; my best guess is that the best rains at that time are east of the Interstate 35 corridor.

It still looks to be an unusually cool start to the holiday weekend for the Midwest. Below normal temperatures will dominate the region for tomorrow and that will last through Saturday. The 4th of July may feature highs not climbing above the 80 degree mark in most of the Midwest.

After that though I do still see warmer-than-normal temperatures increasing in frequency for the region. Sunday and Monday should be warm days, with some low 90s showing up in far western and southwestern areas. Tuesday to Thursday of next week should be cooler again, but above-normal temperatures return to the western Corn Belt for July 11 and it may very well stay above normal there through the end of the two- week forecast.