Russian Grain Harvest Now Officially In Excess 100MMT, Unofficially 110MMT+

Well, I've been saying for long enough that the figures don't stack up. The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia have now officially stated that this year's grain harvest in Russia will total 100-102 mln tonnes.

Last year, Russia harvested 81.8 mln tonnes of grain, as opposed to 78.6 mln tonnes in 2006. In 2008, Russia will harvest a record crop not seen since the beginning of 1990's.

This year's maize harvest also has broken a record and is expected to be 5.0-5.5 mln tonnes. Last year, the maize harvest totaled 4 mln tonnes compared to 3.7 mln tonnes in 2006.

Now, here's the interesting bit....

"As of September 16, Russia harvested 95.3 mln tonnes of grain and legumes throughout 36.1 mln ha. The remaining area totals nearly 10.2 mln ha and potential crops also total 15 mln tonnes."

Hang on a minute, there's 95mmt in the barn, off 78% of total planted acreage. Even if they only get the 15mmt stated (and the way things have been panning out you just know they'll be understating it), 95+15 is 110 isn't it? Not 100-102.

Meanwhile 95mmt off 36m ha is nearly 2.64mt/ha, IF they were to get that yield off the final 10m ha then that puts another 26mmt onto the harvest, giving us a total output of around 120mmt. OK, they won't harvest 100% of total planted area, yields on whats left might not be as good, but a final harvest of 110mmt looks highly achieve able.

And that's assuming that they are telling the truth about total planted acres!