eCBOT Close, Early Call, Report Reaction

The overnights closed mixed, with beans mostly around 3-7 cents lower, wheat mainly 3-4 easier and corn a half to 2 cents higher.

It was a quiet eCBOT market, with just a little light book-squaring ahead of the USDA report.

Overall, I'd say the report is a little bearish, but largely in line with expectations.

For US ending stocks there was no stand-out shock, predictably they couldn't bring themselves to come out with an old-crop soybean number any less than last month's 110 million bushels, although in reality things are probably quite a bit tighter than that.

For new-crop stocks they raised beans above the average guess, but not hugely, and probably not enough. Maybe they know that their old crop number is too high, so they are compensating for that because they suspect that the carry-in from this season will in fact be lower than the figure they are using?

All wheat production was pretty spot on with the average trade guess at 2.112 billion bushels, compared to expectations of 2.107 billion. incidentally, 2.112 billion bushels is around 57.25 MMT.

World wheat production estimates were cut in Canada, Argentina and the EU-27. Astonishingly the USDA number is within 150,000 of my own Nogger estimate! They haven't cut Argy production anything like enough though at 9.5 MMT, that's over 50% more than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange are now saying. Sort it out Tibbs.

There you go it's history already.

Of more import today might be crude oil going down the toilet, at $58.96/barrel, that's the lowest since May, and around $15 off the mid-June highs, and the largest weekly fall since January.

US weather outlook remains promising, at least for developing crops, not so great for advancement of the winter wheat harvest.

South Korea purchased 110,000 tonnes of corn overnight. Tunisia has bought 92,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat. Egypt says it has agreed inspection criteria with Russia on future wheat shipments.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn called 5 to 10 lower; new crop soybeans called 5 to 8 lower; wheat called 4 to 6 lower.