Looks Like Russian Grain Output Really Is Falling
Following on from yesterday's news that Alexei Gordeyev, the ex-head of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, was forecasting a Russian grain crop of only 75-80 MMT this year, other analysts also seem to be revising their production estimates lower too.
According to Allendale's website the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies have dropped their estimate by 3 MMT to 94 MMT.
SovEcon, hot off the press, are about to revise downwards their most recent estimate of 93-100 MMT to 91-95 MMT, due to drought in Volga & Urals. Early yields in the south are coming in at 5-10% lower than last season, they say.
This season's Russian wheat crop is now being seen by SovEcon coming in at around 55-60 MMT in clean weight, that's down on last month's projection of 58-61 MMT and last season's bumper crop of 63.7 MMT.
At this stage it would still seem that Mr Gordeyev had either had too many vodka's when he came up with his estimate, or it was an attempt to make the real output look like an achievement when the final figure is known.
Even so, production in the region of 90-95 MMT represents a shortfall of around 12-17% on last season's 108.1 MMT.
According to Allendale's website the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies have dropped their estimate by 3 MMT to 94 MMT.
SovEcon, hot off the press, are about to revise downwards their most recent estimate of 93-100 MMT to 91-95 MMT, due to drought in Volga & Urals. Early yields in the south are coming in at 5-10% lower than last season, they say.
This season's Russian wheat crop is now being seen by SovEcon coming in at around 55-60 MMT in clean weight, that's down on last month's projection of 58-61 MMT and last season's bumper crop of 63.7 MMT.
At this stage it would still seem that Mr Gordeyev had either had too many vodka's when he came up with his estimate, or it was an attempt to make the real output look like an achievement when the final figure is known.
Even so, production in the region of 90-95 MMT represents a shortfall of around 12-17% on last season's 108.1 MMT.
