El Nino Is Coming

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology website says that an "El Niño event is developing across the Pacific Basin. Conditions have reached a point that, should they persist at such levels through the remainder of the southern winter and into spring, 2009 will be considered an El Niño year.

"Leading climate models indicate that warming of the Pacific will continue for the next few seasons, with very little chance of the current development stalling or reversing."

The last two El Niño years were 2002/03 and 2006/07 when national wheat production was slashed to 10.1 MMT and 10.8 MMT respectively.

Current predictions are for a wheat crop of 22-23 MMT for 2009/10.