CBOT Closing Comments


September beans closed at $10.23, up 23 ¾ cents, with November at $9.73, up 16 cents. A weaker dollar, and firmer crude and equities helped beans today. China purchased 896,000 MT of new crop US soybeans this week which certainly helped the cause also. News that the Argy senate was to extend President Cristina Fernandez's powers to set export taxes on grains, resurrected uncomfortable memories of roadblocks and sales embargoes by militant Argy farmers. A cold US weather outlook for the weekend is also keeping traders nervous. The well-touted Pro Farmer crop tour has been doing the rounds, they peg the 2009 US soybean crop at 3.15 billion bushels, a little lower than the USDA's estimate of 3.199 billion. They have average yields at 41 bu/acre, compared with 41.7 bu/acre from the USDA. A CFTC report showed an overall sharp reduction in both the Large Spec and the Index Funds longs on the week.


September corn closed at $3.21 ¾, up 3 ¼ cents and December at $3.26 ¼, up 2 ¼ cents. As with beans, today's CFTC report showed that this week's announced toughening up on traders legally flouting exchange limits had had a strong reaction. Index Funds decreased positions by 2,544 contracts and Large Specs decreased their net long by 21,879 contracts. A much colder than normal weekend was supportive, although warmer weather is on the cards to return next Tuesday. This is potentially more of a problem for later harvested corn than beans. The Pro Farmer crop tour peg this season's US crop at 12.807 billion bushels, a little higher than the USDA's 12.761 billion.


September wheat closed at $4.60 ¼, down 8 ¾ cents. Stats Canada pegged the crop there at 23.61 MMT, 17.5% lower than last year, although this figure was above the range of analyst's estimates. Output in Ukraine, now the world's fifth largest exporter, is also seen lower than last season at around 21 MMT, but higher than earlier projections of 18-19 MMT. Forecasts are also creeping up in Russia too. Wheat acreage in Argentina is down to a 100 year record low due to drought and political reasons, rain is needed for crops that have been planted in the central part of the country.