UK Barley Crop Likely Around 6.33 MMT

Yesterday's figures from Defra pegged the English winter barley area at 347,200 ha., and the spring barley area at 424,400 ha. That compares to the HGCA's spring estimates of 356,800 and 421,500 respectively.

The latest ADAS report pegs the winter barley yields at slightly lower than the 5-year average at 6.3 MT/ha. Spring barley yields they say are slightly higher than the 5-year average at 5.4 MT/ha.

That potentially gives us an English winter barley crop of around 2.19 MMT and a spring crop of 2.29 MMT.

Unfortunately Defra have shed no further light on plantings in Scotland & Wales, so we need to refer to the HGCA's spring estimates and tweak them accordingly. Back then they pegged Scottish winter barley sowings at 56,500 ha. and spring seedings at 281,100 ha. Welsh estimates were 3,500 and 25,000 ha. respectively.

It's probably fair to assume that, as in England, there was probably a little less winter and a bit more spring barley sown. So lets run with Scottish winter barley around 50,000 ha. and spring barley of 286,000; in Wales we'll try 2,500 winter and 26,000 spring.

It seems likely that both spring and winter barley yields in Scotland and Wales will fall short of average, if we use 5.0 MT/ha. for spring and 5.5 MT/ha. for winter barley, that gives us a combined Hun-descended production of 1.85 MMT.

The bottom line is a UK (excl. NI) barley crop of 6.33 MMT, around 4% higher than last year's 6.1 MMT.