UK Wheat Crop Might Only Be 14 MMT

Yesterday's Defra planting figures surprised the trade with the English wheat planted area coming in lower than had been expectied. Prior to that the only 'official' figures we had to go on were from the HGCA's spring planting survey. That pegged the English wheat area this season at 1.76 million ha.

As the Defra survey was conducted in June, we can only assume that it more accurately reflects what really went into the ground. They peg the English wheat area now at 1.6789 million hectares, the spring HGCA report says that plantings in Scotland were 90,600 ha. and in Wales 16,900 ha., if we still assume that they are correct that gives us a combined UK (excluding NI) area of 1.7864 million ha.

The latest ADAS harvest report says that wheat yields are set to come in close to average at 7.9 MT/ha., those figures combined would give us a UK wheat crop (excluding NI) of 14.11 MMT this season, 19.4% down on last year's bumper 17.5 MMT. That would be the third lowest production in the last fourteen years, beaten only by 2007/08 and 2001/02.

If we were to throw in a slightly lower yield for the Ginger Countries (7 MT/ha in Scotland and 6 MT/ha in Wales) that would bring us down to 14 MMT.