CBOT Closing Comments


December corn futures settled at $3.62 ¼, down 1 ¾ cents. The USDA forecast the US 2009 corn crop at the second highest in history at 13.018 billion bushels with an average yield of 164.2 bu/acre. That was higher than the average trade guess of 12.99 billion and 162.7 bu/acre. Corn 2009/10 ending stocks were in line with expectations at 1.672 billion bushels. Chinese production was lowered 5 MMT to 155 MMT, dropping global ending stocks almost 3 MMT to 136.3 MMT. Snow and freeing temperatures are in the forecast for the weekend, which will further hinder harvesting efforts.


November soybean futures finished at $9.64, up 28 cents, October soymeal futures finished at $310.30, up $7.60, October soy oil finished at 34.91 cents, up 63 points. It seems strange that the highest crop production estimate in history was bullish, but that's the way the trade seems to be reading it. The soybean numbers from the USDA were a little below pre-report estimates at 3.25 billion bushels, with a yield of 42.4 bu/acre. The average trade guess was 3.291 and 42.9 bu/acre. Ending stocks were reported at 230 million bushels, also lower than the average trade estimate. A higher US dollar index pressured futures, but higher crude oil and freeing weekend weather forecasts lent support.


December wheat futures closed at $4.68, down 6 cents. Wheat ending stocks at 864 million bushels were well above the average trade estimate of 802 million. Global production was raised almost 5 MMT to 668.15 MMT, although an increase in consumption only saw world ending stocks increased slightly to 186.73 MMT, from 186.61 MMT last month. Production increases came from Canada (2 MMT), Russia and the US (1 MMT each), and the EU-27, Kazakhstan and Australia all raised by around half a million each.