Chinese Crop Estimates Grossly Overstated
A very interesting report on Agrimoney.com this morning (here) suggests that official estimates for Chinese corn and wheat production this year have been grossly overstated.
The 2009 corn crop could in reality be 13 MMT less, and the wheat crop 9 MMT less, than China's National Grains and Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) are currently saying, says the report.
These are significant numbers when one considers that China alone are set to account for around a third of the world's 2009/10 wheat and corn ending stocks, according to current USDA estimates.
And if roughly 10% of this season's Chinese crops aren't really there, what about previous years, and the cumulative effect of those being overestimated might have on real global stocks right now? Scary thought eh?
Nah, I'm only kidding, there's plenty of wheat to go round - we all 'know' that don't we? And anyway, even if China was lying we could always rely on the rest of the world to tell the truth couldn't we? Let me see now, just to reassure myself, besides the US who's the world's next largest holder of wheat stocks outside China? Yikes, it's India!
Has anyone ever read the Emperor's New Clothes?
The 2009 corn crop could in reality be 13 MMT less, and the wheat crop 9 MMT less, than China's National Grains and Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) are currently saying, says the report.
These are significant numbers when one considers that China alone are set to account for around a third of the world's 2009/10 wheat and corn ending stocks, according to current USDA estimates.
And if roughly 10% of this season's Chinese crops aren't really there, what about previous years, and the cumulative effect of those being overestimated might have on real global stocks right now? Scary thought eh?
Nah, I'm only kidding, there's plenty of wheat to go round - we all 'know' that don't we? And anyway, even if China was lying we could always rely on the rest of the world to tell the truth couldn't we? Let me see now, just to reassure myself, besides the US who's the world's next largest holder of wheat stocks outside China? Yikes, it's India!
Has anyone ever read the Emperor's New Clothes?
