There's Nothing Happening - Is There?
The funds have packed up and gone to visit the folks back home for Thanksgiving by the looks of things. After surging sharply higher early in the session yesterday (20c up beans & wheat and 15c higher corn), fund buying fell away and futures slipped to close in slightly negative territory.
After the close the USDA pegged the corn harvest at 68% done, in line with what was expected, albeit well behind normal. The soybean harvest is finally limping over the finishing line, and wheat planting still lags in the SRW states of Illinois, Missouri and Indiana.
Large, non-commercial spec traders reduced their wheat shorts significantly this past week, according to CFTC data, from 35,144 contracts to 24,872 contracts.
Soybean export inspections were huge, at just shy of 74 million bushels.
This morning the overnight markets look apathetic to that news, continuing to drift slightly lower.
The CBOT is closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and will only trade an abbreviated session Friday. That also means that this week's export sales report will be delayed until Friday. For soybeans, they could well be monster again.
On the weather front, southern Brazil remains very wet - particularly Rio Grande Do Sul where twelve to sixteen-inch rain totals are indicated over the next two weeks, according to QT Weather. That may shortly give rise to some concern.
Welcome heavy rainfall last week eased drought in the Argentina grain belt and will boost soybean planting, although the western rim of the grain belt got only 0.5 inch or less, say Martell Crop Projections.
Whilst some beans will start to get harvested in northern areas of Brazil before too long, they will have to sacrifice yield losses for early beans. The main harvest won't kick off for a few months yet, that still leaves China knocking on America's door for its soybean requirements for a while longer yet, and boy are they knocking loudly.
With gold continuing to make record highs on a seemingly daily basis, I get the feeling that we might be in for a sharply higher retrospective move once we get Thursday's holiday out of the way.
Will it come Friday? That depends on whether the funds are still sat on the in-laws sofas stuffed with turkey or not. If they have dragged themselves into the office, then a shortened trading session might be just the ticket to generate a few fireworks.
If not, Monday/Tuesday could be interesting.
After the close the USDA pegged the corn harvest at 68% done, in line with what was expected, albeit well behind normal. The soybean harvest is finally limping over the finishing line, and wheat planting still lags in the SRW states of Illinois, Missouri and Indiana.
Large, non-commercial spec traders reduced their wheat shorts significantly this past week, according to CFTC data, from 35,144 contracts to 24,872 contracts.
Soybean export inspections were huge, at just shy of 74 million bushels.
This morning the overnight markets look apathetic to that news, continuing to drift slightly lower.
The CBOT is closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and will only trade an abbreviated session Friday. That also means that this week's export sales report will be delayed until Friday. For soybeans, they could well be monster again.
On the weather front, southern Brazil remains very wet - particularly Rio Grande Do Sul where twelve to sixteen-inch rain totals are indicated over the next two weeks, according to QT Weather. That may shortly give rise to some concern.
Welcome heavy rainfall last week eased drought in the Argentina grain belt and will boost soybean planting, although the western rim of the grain belt got only 0.5 inch or less, say Martell Crop Projections.
Whilst some beans will start to get harvested in northern areas of Brazil before too long, they will have to sacrifice yield losses for early beans. The main harvest won't kick off for a few months yet, that still leaves China knocking on America's door for its soybean requirements for a while longer yet, and boy are they knocking loudly.
With gold continuing to make record highs on a seemingly daily basis, I get the feeling that we might be in for a sharply higher retrospective move once we get Thursday's holiday out of the way.
Will it come Friday? That depends on whether the funds are still sat on the in-laws sofas stuffed with turkey or not. If they have dragged themselves into the office, then a shortened trading session might be just the ticket to generate a few fireworks.
If not, Monday/Tuesday could be interesting.
