EU Wheat Ends Quietly Mixed

EU wheat futures closed mixed in a quiet trading session with the US markets closed for Thanksgiving. London wheat closes with January up GBP0.10 at GBP107.60/tonne, and Paris January milling wheat down EUR2.25 at EUR131.00/tonne.

Tomorrow will be interesting. Chicago trades a shortened session due to Thursday's holiday. The USDA are out with their weekly export sales report, and I for one expect soybean sales to be larger than trade expectations once again. The stock market has the jitters over Dubai, and China has announced that they will buy domestic soy and corn stocks at or around current market levels.

Gold hit another new all-time high as well. The dollar is weak, but the pound weaker still. There's quite a few conflicting influences there, pulling the market this way and that.

On the fundamental front, the IGC today said that they expect global 2009/10 wheat production to come in at 668.3 MMT, 1.5 MMT up from it's previous estimate. They also said that they see 2010/11 plantings down 1.5 million hectares, and cut their Australian 2009/10 production estimate to 22 MMT.

Widespread reports now suggest that the Australian crop has had a very poor finish, hit by 30-35C temperatures and heavy rain and high winds. The crop their is estimated to be around 40% harvested.

For all the rhetoric from grain merchants about the recent price rise being a God-given selling opportunity, one trader I know today told me that he'd had the Devil's own job just trying to even get a price on UK wheat delivered on a 24 month forward contract.

If anyone reading this thinks that's complete rubbish, give me a call or email tomorrow with a guaranteed firm offer on a load a week of feed wheat for Dec09-Dec11 delivered to the Preston area. We are awash with the stuff after all!