Ukraine To Import Wheat In 2010/11?

Reports suggest that Ukraine will only manage to harvest "a maximum" of 8 MMT of milling wheat this year, well below domestic consumption of 11-12 MMT.

Having aggressively marketed and exported wheat of all grades throughout 2009/10 it will come as no surprise to hear that official records of milling wheat ending stocks from last season appear to have got lost in the post.

One report I am reading suggests that the cash-strapped Ukraine's already have commitments to export 3 MMT of milling wheat this season.

The maths on this one certainly don't add up. Even is this week's hastily introduced new regulations on exports effectively bars this 3 MMT from leaving Ukraine will clearly run out of milling wheat by spring.

The country is estimated to produce 38-40 MMT of grains this year, down 13-17% from last season's 46 MMT. That looks like it will consist of around 18 MMT of wheat, 10 MMT of barley and 10-12 MMT of corn.