Early Call On CBOT

The overnight grains were lower across the board with wheat down 1-2c, corn down 2-3c and beans 8-10c lower.

Crude oil is below USD75/barrel on continued concerns over demand stemming from the ill-health of the global economy.

On the bearish side we have impending record large corn and soybean crops to come in the US, but on the bullish side strong global demand.

It would seem that the extent of the Russian/Ukraine problems were more than factored into prices. The arrival of cooler temperatures and some spotty rains will not have cured the problem, but at least eased it.

QT Weather report that "a marked increase in soil moisture will be seen over the next 7 days but leave dry conditions in significant winter wheat planting areas across the drought stricken southern Volga, parts of the Southern region and eastern Ukraine."

Agronomist Mike Lee in Ukraine reports that "we had rain today and the temperature has dropped significantly, it's much appreciated believe me."

Some in denial wheat bulls are pointing to lower production in Western Australia, where wheat output is now seen a third lower this year due to drought. That might sound like a lot but in reality it's less than 3 MMT, or the equivalent of Mexico's production. In addition there's the potential for record yields in NSW and Victoria to contend with.

Egypt bought 240,000 MT of new crop US corn today.

Opinions are divided as to the potential for the US to deliver the record crops that the USDA is forecasting. The early results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour would appear to suggest that it can. It will probably deliver them earlier than normal too in many areas, which at least minimises the threat of frost.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn down 2-4c, soybeans down 8-10c, wheat down 1-3c.