Early Call On Chicago
20/04/12 -- The overnight grains see soybeans 5-7 cents firmer, corn up 4 cents on old crop and flat to a cent higher new crop, wheat is around a cent easier. Crude is a dollar or so higher.
Including overnight action soybeans are around 15 cents weaker on the week so far, with corn down 4 cents and wheat unchanged.
Strong rumours of China's Sinograin buying US corn on the recent dip remain, but there are no confirmations as yet. They have however been confirmed as being in for US soybeans for the past three days.
As the Brazilian harvest winds down, we switch our attention to Argentina where the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange say that the soybean harvest is 37% complete, with 39% of the corn cut.
They are sticking with a soybean crop of 44 MMT and a corn crop of 20.8 MMT, although they acknowledge that early harvest results "are not meeting expectations".
The Rosario Grain Exchange peg soybean output at 43.1 MMT and corn production at 19.7 MMT.
The Argy Agriculture Ministry have cut their soybean production estimate there from 44 MMT to 42.9 MMT, and lowered corn output to 20.3 MMT from 21.2 MMT.
As well as drought earlier in the season, heavy rains and hailstorms have also damaged yields over the past month, they said.
Australia will have a wheat crop of 26.1 MMT in 2012/13, according to the National Australia Bank, noting excellent subsoil moisture in the east. That's 12% down on last year's record harvest. A significant switch into rapeseed sowing, which kicks off around now, is anticipated this year.
US weather remains largely favourable. Heavy rain in Europe, and the prospect for plenty more to come, has eased drought fears putting wheat under a bit of pressure.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: old crop corn up 3-5 cents, new crop mixed; soybeans up 5-7 cents; wheat mixed.
Early Call On Chicago
19/04/12 -- The overnight gains rebounded from last night's losses to pretty much take us back to where we were on Tuesday. Beans finished 14-16 cents higher, with wheat up 8-9 cents and corn 10-13 cents firmer.
The USDA's weekly export sales report gave us 365,900 MT for old crop wheat and 76,300 MT for new crop, a bit below expectations for sales of 450-650 TMT.
Corn sales were poor at 300,400 MT old crop and net sales reductions of 2,400 MT for new crop versus trade ideas for sales of 600-950 TMT.
Soybean sales were strong at 374,300 MT old crop and 845,000 MT new crop. China took 127,200 MT old crop and 615,000 MT new crop. Expectations were for sales of a combined 750 TMT - 1.1 MMT.
In amongst the corn details was a small 15,000 MT sale to China, not the widely rumoured kind of volume that has supposedly been done.
Once again we see soybeans setting themselves up to be the leader. To reinforce that view the USDA have also reported the further sale of 110,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China under the daily reporting system.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 10-12 cents, wheat up 8-10 cents, soybeans up 14-16 cents.
Early Call On Chicago
17/04/12 -- The overnight grains rebounded higher on soybeans which were up 6-8 cents, wheat 2-3 cents higher and corn mixed a cents or so either way. WTI crude is up a dollar, Brent is around unchanged.
The market is bracing itself for a corn planting progress number from the USDA around a record 20% complete. Beneficial moisture has fallen across much of the Midwest with more on the way too to help get the crop off to a good and early start, maximising yield potential. So far so good, although there's a very long way to go yet.
Soybean plantings are expected to be around 5% complete. Spring wheat sowings could be as much as 50% done. Winter wheat good/excellent was 61% last week, a huge improvement on year ago levels.
The USDA have reported the sale of 225,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations today, split 110,000 MT old crop and 115,000 MT new crop.
Michael Cordonnier has reduced his Argentine soybean production estimate to 43.5 MMT, 1.5 MMT below the USDA's latest number, as the crop there keeps getting smaller.
Oil World have lowered their Argy forecast to 44 MMT and cut their Brazilian soybean production estimate to 65 MMT, 1 MMT below the USDA's figure.
Russia exported a record 18.5 MMT of wheat between July 1, 2011, and April 15, 2012, and will finish the season exporting a total of 20.5 MMT, according to the Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies.
Total grain exports for the 2011/12 marketing year will be a record 25 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry, or even higher at 25.7 MMT according to RusAgroTrans.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: soybeans up 5-7 cents, wheat up 1-3 cents, corn mixed.
Early Call On Chicago
13/04/12 -- The overnight grains ended barely changed in a "the weekend can't come soon enough" kind of a manner. Beans are around 7 cents higher on the week so far, with corn around 20 cents lower and wheat pretty flat. Crude is slightly easier and the dollar marginally firmer.
Fresh news is extremely thin on the ground. US weather is non-threatening, European weather has improved.
The USDA has reported the sale of 165,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China. They just love it don't they?
Argentine soybean production estimates keep getting smaller. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday went 44 MMT for Argentina, the Rosario equivalent now say 43.1 MMT.
I have a funny feeling that once the harvest kicks off things could get lower again.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat down 1-2 cents; soybeans down 1-3 cents; old crop corn flat to up 2 cents, new crop down 1-2 cents.
Early Call On Chicago
12/04/12 -- The overnight grains ended with beans 6-9 cents firmer, corn up 1-2 cents and wheat 3-5 cents higher. Crude has gone from being slightly higher to a tad lower, the dollar is also a bit weaker.
The USDA gave us strong weekly export sales for corn of 959,100 MT old crop and 16,700 MT of new crop versus expectations of 400-850 TMT. Unknown took 291,100 MT of that and China was confirmed as having bought one 60,000 MT cargo.
Soybean sales of 460,100 MT of old crop and 176,300 MT of new crop were a bit below expectations of 800 TMT-1.1 MMT.
Wheat sales were 452,100 MT old crop and 90,400 MT new crop, against expectations of 400-600 TMT.
The market may be asking "where exactly is all this old crop corn going to come from?" Let's hope that the USDA knows.
WxRisk are forecasting a welcome major rain event for almost all of the Midwest with 75% coverage of 1-3 inches. That may slow planting up a little but will be beneficial overall.
After a couple of days of consolidation are beans set to move higher again? The overnight market seems to think so, but a disappointing look to the export sales numbers may temper some of that enthusiasm a little.
That said the USDA have just confirmed the sale of 115,000 MT of US soybeans to China and a further 189,000 MT to unknown. Both are split between old and new crop.
Some switching of planting intentions must have gone on since the USDA numbers were collated, but how much? I still think we will have a soybean area closer to 75 million acres than the USDA's 73.9 million, but that doesn't make me bearish on beans, they still have the greatest upside potential for my money.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-3 cents, wheat up 2-4 cents, soybeans up 5-7 cents
Early Call On Chicago
11/04/12 -- The overnight grains ended with soybeans mixed, corn up 2-3 cents and wheat 5-6 cents higher. Crude is up a bit and the dollar a tad lower.
Fresh news is limited today after yesterday's excitement. Outside markets seem to have stabilised following a bit of a rout yesterday.
Soybeans were lower for much of the morning but the more active months generally managed to post modest gains by the close of the overnight session.
There was a bit of frost about overnight in parts of the Midwest but no crop damage is thought likely to have been done. Now that insurance planting dates are being hit we can expect activity to crank up a notch or two.
I appear to have hit "bloggers block" as I really can't think of anything else to say!
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 1-3 cents, soybeans flat to up 2 cents, wheat up 4-6 cents.
Early Call On Chicago
05/04/12 -- The overnight grains see beans 3-4 cents higher, wheat a cent higher to 2 cents lower and corn around 1-2 cents easier. Crude is slightly higher and so too is the dollar.
The USDA reveals weekly export sales of 408,300 MT for old crop wheat and 103,400 MT for new crop, compared to expectations of 300-500 TMT. In amongst the old crop sales was 38,000 MT for China. Exports of 404,700 MT were in line with recent weekly totals.
Soybean sales of 406,900 MT of old crop and 706,000 MT for delivery in the 2012/13 beat analysts expectations of 600-850 TMT. Once again China took the lion's share accounting for 257,200 MT of old crop and 525,500 MT of the new crop.
Corn sales of 937,600 MT old crop and 185,100 MT new crop also beat trade guesses of combined sales of 400-700 TMT. What will catch trader's eyes is China taking 394,000 MT of the old crop.
China present in the weekly export sales for all three of the main protagonists has to be something of a first for quite some time. That may support the market tonight, particularly old crop corn.
As we head into a long weekend nearby beans are up 19 3/4 cents on the week so far, with corn down 11 3/4 cents and wheat falling 20 1/4 cents, including the overnights.
South American soybean production estimates keep falling.
Midwest weather forecasts seem mostly favourable, although there's a light frost on the cards for some places little damage is expected with only 3% of the corn crop in the ground as of last Sunday.
The results of today's Egyptian wheat tender will be out mid-session.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: soybeans up 3-4 cents; wheat up 1-2 cents; old crop corn up 2-3 cents, new crop corn down 1-3 cents.
Early Call On Chicago
03/04/12 -- The overnight grains saw a bit of light consolidation with beans down 5-6 cents, wheat falling 5-10 cents and corn 2 cents higher on old crop to 3 cents lower on new crop. Brent crude is around half a dollar lower, NYMEX crude is three quarters of a dollar easier.
The USDA reveal that spring wheat plantings are off to a flyer, with 8% of the crop already in the ground as of Sunday compared to just 2% normally. Winter wheat crop conditions are much better than last year at 58% good-to-excellent.
Corn plantings however haven't progressed a lot, contrary to market expectations, going from 2% done last weekend to just 3% complete this weekend. Maybe that will see some corn acres shift into beans? Or maybe that's just caution, with few willing to plant ahead of the first planting insurance dates?
Celeres have cut their Brazilian soybean crop forecast by almost 2 MMT to 67.97 MMT, around half a million less than the USDA although towards the higher end of other trade estimates. For corn, they've increased things slightly from 60.4 MMT to 60.71 MMT. Soybean harvesting is 76% done as of Friday, nine points ahead of a year ago. Summer corn harvesting is 61% complete, they added.
A report on Bloomberg quoting French analysts Agritel says that European wheat prospects may have taken a 6 MMT hit at the hands of the February freeze and winter drought.
Russia's exports have slowed right up with the Grain Union saying that the country only shipped 1.6 MMT of grains in March. Russia’s Ag Ministry estimate 2011/12 grain ending stocks at 18 MMT.
Ukraine says it exported 2.41 MMT of grain last month, full 2011/12 exports are likely to be around 21 MMT.
US winter wheat crop development is ahead of normal and harvesting of the 2012 crop is now only six weeks away!
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat 5-10 cents lower, soybeans down 5-7 cents, corn 1-2 cents higher old crop and 1-2 cents lower on new crop.
Early Call On Chicago
02/04/12 -- The overnight markets saw a bit of consolidation with wheat ending 6-9 cents lower on old crop and with losses of 10-12 cents on new crop. Corn was 4 cents higher in front month May, but slightly weaker in new crop positions. The strongest leg, soybeans, were around 8 cents higher for old crop and 10-14 cents firmer for new crop. Crude is around half a dollar lower.
April heralds the start of the regular Monday night crop progress reports, the first of which will be out after the close this evening. Winter wheat crop conditions will be of interest, so too will be a corn planting progress comparison with normal.
Based on Friday's acreage numbers soybeans look set to remain the strongest leg of the complex for some time, even if the final planting figure is significantly higher than 73.9 million given South America's recent production losses.
For corn we have the bullish tight old crop stocks story and the bearish highest plantings in 75 year bearish new crop story.
For wheat we have much better than a year ago crop conditions, a harvest that isn't that far away now we are into April, and ample world stocks. We also have a still significant short position in Chicago and a European crop that looks like it's shrinking rather than growing.
A new month usually also means new money. Funds are already record long soybeans, will they fancy coming in for more? For corn, they exited a decent slug of their length in the run-up to Friday's reports and for wheat they've held a sizable short for some time now, the magnitude of which has underpinned the market.
The USDA report today the sale of 120,000 MT of old crop beans to China, that should add underlying support. They also report a similar volume of new crop meal sold to unknown.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 2-4 cents, wheat down 8-10 cents and soybeans up 10-12 cents.
USDA Reaction: Pyrotechnic Extravaganza
30/03/12 -- We were expecting fireworks, and as usual Uncle USDA didn't disappoint, buying the biggest box in the shop and deciding to let them off all at the same time.
For corn they gave us a planting number even higher than the highest trade estimate, close to 96 million acres of the stuff. But those acres have to come from somewhere, and soybeans and wheat are seen providing them with soybean plantings seen at 73.9 million acres, lower than the lowest trade estimate and 1.1 million below the USDA's February Outlook estimate. All wheat acres are pegged at 55.9 million, towards the low end of what was expected and more than 2 million below last month's Outlook Forum.
For stocks, all three came in below the average trade guess.
The vibe now is that this is very bullish for soybeans per se, especially when you consider with a shudder what the market might do if and when we get a weather scare or two across the summer.
For corn it's a mixed bag, for sure almost 96 million acres is bearish, but we have an even tighter old crop situation than we had before. Any weather scares across the summer could also impact on production potential here, and don't forget that the USDA have already set the bar pretty high for corn with an ambitious return to trendline yields.
There are already some saying that these figures are a little out of date. Corn has fallen 50 cents this month, whilst beans have risen 33 cents. Some of these corn acres are already in the ground though thanks to the near ideal early spring weather.
For wheat we have 1.5 million more acres than last year, but that isn't as much as the trade was expecting. We also have the spectre of European production getting cut, with Coceral today coming out with a soft wheat estimate 2.1% down on last year at 126.76 MMT.
The vibe is for soybeans to trade 50 cents higher at the opening. Corn is seen 20 cents higher on old crop and even new crop could get dragged higher despite the monster acreage number. Wheat is called 15-20 cents higher, there are some big shorts around on the latter don't forget.
Early Call On Chicago
29/03/12 -- The overnight grains saw beans 2-3 cents higher, with corn 3-5 cents lower and wheat down a cent or so.
Crude oil is a bit weaker on talk that France, the US and the UK are in discussions with the International Energy Agency about a potential release of strategic oil reserves.
In addition US stocks rose by 7.1 million barrels to 353.4 mln last week, the biggest weekly increase since July 2010 and inventories are now at their highest level in seven months.
The USDA reported weekly export sales for wheat of a combined 403,100 MT, below expectations of 450-750 TMT. Shipments of of 440,900 MT were down 20 percent from the previous week.
For corn we got old crop sales of 130,700 MT - a marketing-year low - and new crop sales of only 27,000 MT. That's way below the anticipated 600-900 TMT.
Soybean sales of 471,900 MT for old crop and 120,400 MT for new crop were within the range of trade estimates of 450-750 TMT. China took 209,900 MT of the old crop and 55,000 MT of the new crop. In addition, the USDA have reported 120,000 MT of soybeans sold to China overnight under the daily reporting system.
Despite the funds having already liquidated an estimated 35-40,000 corn contracts heading into tomorrow's USDA reports these numbers may encourage some further load lightening this afternoon. In addition, despite plenty of rumours to the contrary, there was no sign of China as a featured corn buyer.
That may drag wheat a bit lower with it as US weather remains non-threatening with no frost in the 7-10 day forecast. We also have very favourable conditions for fieldwork in the Midwest and beneficial rains in the Southern Plains having improved HRW wheat conditions substantially in recent weeks.
Concerns remain over Western European dryness though, some moisture is in the forecast for Eastern Europe in the week ahead.
The USDA have just reported the sale of 120,000 MT of US corn to unknown. Interesting. There are all sorts of things you could read into that.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 3-5 cents, wheat down 1-3 cents, beans up 2-4 cents.
Early Call On Chicago
27/03/12 -- The overnight markets are a little higher with beans and corn up around 4-6 cents and wheat around 2-4 cents steadier. Crude is a little lower but Brent remains above USD125/barrel whilst NYMEX WTI hovers around USD107/barrel.
It's warmer and drier than normal both sides of the Atlantic. Winter wheat crop conditions in the US are way ahead of last year and crop development is at least a couple of weeks ahead of normal.
Kansas wheat is has jumped to 59% good/excellent, up from 54% last week. Oklahoma's crop is in even better shape, with 75% of it rated in the top two categories compared to 70% a week ago. Last week's rains clearly did plenty of good.
It's wheat conditions and production potential this side of the pond that is getting all the attention though, with Spain the primary concern, although the UK and northern France are also major worries.
Even so the EU Commission's MARS unit say that EU-27 wheat yields will come in slightly higher than last year at 5.41 MT/ha. Spanish yields are seen down 14.2% for all wheat, with durum yields falling by almost a third. Romania is also flagged up as suffering with wheat and barley yields both down around 21%.
Whilst US conditions look largely very favourable now things could still turn nasty in April. Then there's a whole summer of potential weather scares waiting. If the funds fancy it, and it looks like they do, who knows where prices might go if things turn shitty - particularly for soybeans which appear to have the most upside potential to me.
Meanwhile, the trade is positioning ahead of Friday's USDA reports. Trade estimates for the US corn acreage average 94.7 million acres, up 2.8 million or 3% from 2011. Estimates range from 93.6 to 95.6 million acres.
For soybeans the trade is forecasting 75.5 million acres, only half a million up on last year, despite prices close to USD14/bushel.
Regardless of what the USDA say on Friday, longer term price direction is all about fund money. Yesterday they were said to have sold around 10,000 corn contracts and been net buyers of 9,000 lots of soybeans and 4,000 lots of wheat. Corn went down and beans and wheat ended higher. Simple!
The USDA have just reported the sale of 120,000 MT of new crop soybeans to their favourite buyer, China.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 2-4 cents, corn and beans 4-6 cents higher.
Early Call On Chicago
21/03/12 -- The overnight grains didn't offer much this morning, with beans 1-3 cents firmer and corn & wheat 2-3 cents weaker. Crude is up slightly and the dollar is a touch firmer against the pound and the euro.
French cereal lobby Orama said yesterday that 700,000 ha of winter crops have suffered winterkill and will need to be replanted, that's 8 percent of the total area sown in the autumn and easily the largest estimate yet, which immediately puts me in mind of the little boy who cried wolf for some reason.
They also said that the European debt crisis is over and that President Sarkozy is in reality six foot tall and is only made to look small via a complicated combination of smoke & mirrors to keep Angela Merkel happy.
As ever we are all once again hanging on the USDA's every word awaiting next week's planting intentions report. The corn area is seen anywhere between 93.7-95.5 million acres depending on who you want to run with, versus 94 million at the February Outlook Forum.
The post-War high for corn area was the 93.527m acres planted in 2007.
For soybeans we are looking at an area of 74.7-76.7 million acres (the USDA Forum last month said 75 million), and for wheat 57-59.2 million (58 million last month).
Meanwhile we have improved weather conditions for developing winter wheat, which are also conducive for early corn planting which is putting the grains under a little bit of pressure.
Morocco and Algeria are both said to have bought South American wheat, with EU and US origins too expensive.
The Russian export pace has faded at such a rate that breaching the government's 27 MMT limit suddenly looks highly unlikely. Ukraine is still going hammer and tongs at corn exports in particular, although they've also sold 100,000 MT of wheat to Bangladesh this week.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn & wheat 2-4 cents lower, soybeans up 2-3 cents.
Early Call On Chicago
20/03/12 -- The overnight market is red across the board with beans down 10-13 cents and corn & wheat around 6-9 cents lower. WTI crude is a dollar or so weaker, with Brent falling around USD1.75/barrel. Outside markets are also mostly negative with gold and equities also falling. The dollar is a bit firmer, adding a bit more downside pressure.
Profit-taking looks like being the order of the day again, with no sign of a turnaround Tuesday in sight so far.
Russia's announcement that they won't be introducing any sort of export restrictions this season is being credited for having knocked some of the stuffing out of the market. Rusagrotrans say grain exports in Feb fell to 1.1 MMT due to ice restricting movements. That brings Jul-Feb exports to 20.6 MMT, they see the full 2011/12 MY at 25.5-26 MMT, comfortably below the government's suggested ceiling.
The US weather finally seems to be playing ball too, with rain where it's wanted and warmth and dryness where that is wanted too. There were good rains in central OK, KS, and TX yesterday, and the dry areas of Western KS and Eastern CO look set to receive rains in next few days also.
Winter wheat is 3-4 weeks ahead of normal development, which is fine as long as we don't get an April freeze. The latter certainly isn't out of the question though.
As things stand Midwest corn planting looks like getting off to a flyer.
Linn Group are estimating US all wheat plantings at 57 million acres, with corn at 94.8 million and soybeans at 76.7 million. March 1st stocks for wheat are seen at 1.216 billion bushels, for corn 6.112 billion and for beans 1.387 billion.
Last month the USDA's Outlook Forum pegged corn acres at 94 million, soybeans at 75 million and wheat at 58 million.
Based on where the overnights are now we see May 12 beans down 20 1/4 cents, May 12 corn down 18 1/2 cents and May 12 CBOT wheat down 28 1/2 cents from Friday night's closing levels.
For corn yesterday's export inspections were pretty poor and cumulative shipments now lag year ago levels by more than 23 million bushels. Soybean and wheat inspections were also on the low side.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans down 10-12 cents, wheat & corn down 7-9 cents.
Chicago Set To Open Lower
19/03/12 -- The overnight market has begun the week in negative territory with beans and corn 4-6 cents lower and wheat down 5-7 cents. NYMEX crude is a bit firmer and Brent a little lower.
Weekend weather developments in the US took a turn for the better with Martell Crop Projections saying Midwest temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s already have soil temperatures "above the 50 F threshold for corn germination, even 4-16 inches deep."
In addition: "Strong thunderstorms erupted early this morning in the southwest Great Plains bringing welcome heavy rain to wheat in southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle."
Also: "The Midwest is expecting welcome rain in Missouri, Iowa, eastern Nebraska and Minnesota. Iowa and Minnesota growers will welcome soaking rain, since the subsoil is badly depleted of moisture. East of the Mississippi River, the forecast is mainly dry this week. Low rainfall, together with heat, is good news for growers in Indiana and Ohio, where the subsoil is already plenty wet," they conclude.
Russia says that there will be no need for it to impose export restrictions on grains during the remainder of 2011/12. Iraq says it has bought 300,000 MT of Canadian wheat and it will tender for more next month.
European debt worries return, with the market now focusing on Portugal and Spain.
Debt isn't the only worry in Europe though, winter kill and drought are also a cause for concern with many now saying that grain production won't rebound from last season's output, but may now actually fall in 2012.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn, wheat and beans all down 4-6 cents.
Early Call On Chicago
15/03/12 -- The overnight grains ended with beans around 10-12 cents firmer, corn up 3-5 cents and wheat 2-4 cents higher. WTI crude is down 30 cents or so and Brent is down almost a dollar.
Soybeans are back in the driving seat after a couple of days rest Friday/Monday.
The USDA have reported weekly soybean sales of 609,700 MT for old crop and 784,000 MT for new crop, giving us a combined total of an impressive almost 1.4 MMT, once again that's well above expectations of 650 to 900 thousand MT.
Omnipresent China took 368,200 MT of the old crop and almost all of the new crop (669,000 MT).
Corn sales were 836,400 MT, all of old crop, at the top end of trade estimates for sales of 600 to 850 thousand MT.
Wheat sales were slack at 302,400 MT of old crop and 57,900 MT of new crop. Trade estimates were for sales of 400 to 600 TMT. Weekly shipments of 913,000 MT however were a marketing-year high and well above what we have seen of late.
Strategie Grains have cut their EU-27 2012 wheat and barley production estimates due to winterkill in France and Germany and drought in Spain. Corn production looks set to benefit on the back of increased plantings with output raised 2 MMT.
Agroconsult have cut their 2011/12 Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 2.8 MMT to 67.1 MMT.
US ethanol production fell by 14,000 barrels/day last week to 892,000 bpd. That's the first time in six months that output has been lower than the same week a year previously. Signs that the removal of the tax credit is finally starting to bite?
In China, corn futures on the Dalian exchange have jumped to new highs overnight.
Egypt have bought one cargo each of Canadian and US wheat for May delivery.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn up 3-5 cents, beans up 10-12 cents, wheat up 2-4 cents.
Early Call On Chicago
14/03/12 -- The overnight market sees soybeans modestly higher, up 1-3 cents, with corn 3-5 cents lower and wheat down mostly 2-4 cents. Crude is around half a dollar weaker and the USD is up a tad.
March CBOT contracts go off the board today. Fresh news is scarce.
US weather offers an opportunity for early plantings. Not only should this maximise yield potential, it also could mean an early harvest which for corn in particular could be important given the fairly tight carryout situation.
It also could mean a repetition of 2010 when the USDA got all mixed up and seemingly included some new crop corn into the old crop carryout, remember that one?
Reports on Twitter suggest that a senior IGC economist sees the 2012/13 world corn crop at a record 880 MMT, from 864 MMT in 2011/12. Global consumption however is also seen rising to 884 MMT from 871 MMT with the increase driven mainly by higher feed usage.
NOPA's February soybean crush came in at 136.35 million bushels, down 6.463 million from a month ago but up 11.466 million from a year ago and above expectations of 132.6 million.
Early calls have beans 1-3 cents firmer, corn down 3-5 cents and wheat down 2-4 cents.
Early Call On Chicago
12/03/12 -- Predictably, before the ink is even dry, Friday's USDA report is fish & chip wrappings and we are now all waiting to see what they have to say about prospective plantings at the end of the month.
With prices where they currently are US growers are spoilt for choice. Much of the US will experience temperatures well above normal during the next two weeks with highs in the low 80's on the cards by midweek.
Farmers will be itching to get their crops in nice and early by the looks of it. That should maximise spring crops yield potential unless Mother Nature turns nasty with an April frost. A scenario not unknown.
The overnights finished mostly a tad lower with the exception of nearby corn which was 2 1/2 cents firmer. Crude is down sharply with Brent losing around USD1.60/barrel and NYMEX falling almost USD2.00/barrel as tensions between Iran and the West ease a little.
News that China has just unveiled it's largest trade deficit in at least a decade last month hasn't helped ease fears of slumping growth hurting demand for crude.
As yet there has been no confirmation of the rumoured Chinese buying of US corn that dragged the market higher on Friday despite a bearish slant to the USDA numbers for corn.
Customs data shows that China imported 3.83 MMT of soybeans in February, down 17% from the 4.61 MMT brought in in January.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans flat to down 2 cents, corn mixed up 2 to down 3 cents and wheat flat to down 2 cents.
Early Call On Chicago
09/03/12 -- The USDA report contained a bit of something for everyone, bulls and bears alike. Twitter is awash with conflicting suggestions as to whether this afternoon will have a bullish or bearish theme.
My take on it is that the soybean numbers are bullish overall, with slightly larger cuts than anticipated to the crops in South America. I think that the trade will shrug off the USDA leaving US ending stocks unchanged and cutting Chinese demand slightly.
The corn numbers are bearish, there's no two ways about it. A raise in output for Brazil, despite being hinted at by CONAB yesterday, was not expected and neither was production in Argentina thought likely to be left unchanged. US ending stocks weren't reduced at all, and although world ending stocks were it was not by as much as expected. Add in the fact that a bullish report was expected and that possibly "doubles up" the bearish nature of this report.
The wheat numbers look mildly friendly, but given that world ending stocks are now only marginally less than record highs and that for corn the report is bearish then I'd expect wheat to get dragged lower this afternoon.
Soybeans up, corn down taking wheat with it, that's how it looks to me. A situation not unusual this past few weeks. EU wheat seems to have moved a bit higher since the report came out though, so what do I know? Bear in mind also that soybeans are already heavily overbought and we do have a weekend coming up.
On the weather front "A more active subtropical jet stream is giving the Southern Great Plains winter wheat a good chance for rainfall. Texas and Oklahoma are expecting soaking rain over the next few days," say Martell Crop Projections.
"Rainfall of .75 inch is expected, but over 1 inch locally. On the other hand, the Kansas forecast is dry except perhaps the south-central district," they say.
Further north "temperatures in the northern United States are expected to turn unseasonably warm in the next several days. Sioux City, Iowa will reach the mid 60s F next week. The windy and warm weather would serve to dry out the topsoil in the Northern United States. Some fieldwork may even begin with a stretch of sunny open weather," they add.
Another influence this afternoon is that Informa are due out around an hour after the opening with their revised planting estimates. The recent price movements in beans relative to corn may see some additional soybean acres getting added.
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans up 10-12 cents, wheat up 3-5 cents, corn flat to 2 cents firmer. Where we close will be of more importance than where we open.
Early Call On Chicago
07/03/12 -- After a bit of consolidation yesterday the overnight grains were very lifeless with little change for beans, wheat or corn.
Brent crude is around 75 cents firmer with WTI up half a dollar or so after China said it would boost energy imports this year.
The dollar is firmer on it's "safe haven" status on nervousness that Greece won't get enough of it's bondholders to agree to take a more than 50% haircut on the debt they hold. The deadline is 20.00 GMT tomorrow, with a minimum of 75% needing to agree to swap their existing Greek government bonds for new debt.
Brazil's soybean crop is generally forecast in the range of 68-71 MMT versus 72 MMT from the USDA last month. Argentina's production is expected at around 45-48 MMT compared to 48 MMT from the USDA last month.
These lower production numbers should be more than priced into a market that's seen CBOT soybean prices up for 14 of the last 16 sessions during which time Mar 12 has risen by more than a dollar a bushel.
Brazil's corn crop is seen around the 60 MMT mark, aided by hopes for a strong performance from "safrinha" corn, 1 MMT less than the USDA said last time. Argentina's corn crop is expected to come in around 20 MMT, some 2 MMT lower than the current USDA number.
Once we get Friday's report out of the way we will no doubt end up in limbo again waiting for the planting intentions numbers at the end of the month.
Prior to that though, could Friday's WASDE report be usurped by Greece taking one step closer to a default if it fails to persuade enough bondholders to go for their debt swap?
Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat flat to 2 cents lower, corn and soybeans mixed 2 cents higher to 2 cents lower.
