Early Call On Chicago

The overnight grains have ended sharply lower, with beans around 20c down, wheat 18-20c easier and corn off around 12-13c.

Wall Street is seen opening lower on European debt concerns.

A combination of month-end, quarter-end and pre-report profit-taking seems to be behind the move. There may also have been some computer-generated selling too I suspect.

CBOT Dec wheat is now almost 90c below last Monday's high and more than two dollars below the early August high. Corn and beans are also more than 10c under what was supposed to be support at USD5 and USD11 respectively.

The six million dollar question now is will the money that is now exiting the arena be straight back in again once we are into October to push everything higher again?

Tomorrow's quarterly stocks report is expected to show corn stocks at 1.407 billion bushels, soybeans at 151 million bushels, and wheat at 2.44 billion bushels.

There is a school of thought that the early harvest means that corn and bean stocks will in fact come in higher than these estimates.

Tomorrow's weekly export sales will also be of particular importance after last week's disappointing effort from corn and wheat. Will that provide further evidence that price is indeed rationing demand?

News out today that the Chinese yuan is set to post it's biggest monthly gain against the dollar since 2005 may foster ideas that demand from there may wane a little. Their soybean harvest is well advanced and new crop corn is also now starting to arrive onto the domestic market.

The US weather outlook is fine and dry for the next 10 days, with warmer and drier conditions in Canada also likely to enable good harvest progress to be made in the ensuing week.

Conditions have also improved in eastern Ukraine and parts of the Volga region of Russia to encourage further winter planting progress.

Some forecasters are now plugging in rain for central Brazil a little earlier than the mid-October time frame that had been mooted.

All these factors seem to be placing more than a few question marks as to the validity of the recent price spike, so I guess it's a good time to take some money off the table.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn down 10-12 cents, soybeans down 18-20 cents, and wheat down 18-20 cents.