Is It All A Dream?

Having bounced off the ceiling of EUR236/tonne two or three times, Paris wheat finally capitulated and closed below support at EUR230/tonne yesterday. Open interest in the Nov also fell by around 4,000 lots.

Here we go then I think, we've broken out of this narrow range, EUR230 now becomes resistance, the funds are finally starting to liquidate their inverse massive long position, the only way is down.

But no, the overnight eCBOT market snaps three days of wheat declines on frost forecasts for northern China corn areas and back up we go, Paris surges to a fresh two-year high of EUR238 at the open and the plucky French resistance is broken.

But no (again), shortly after trading at a fresh two-year high the market immediately falls back below EUR236 and settles back where we were a couple of days ago in the narrow EUR230-236 range.

Do you remember that entire series of Dallas when everything that happened was erased for the following series and dismissed as being "all a dream"?