NFU Crop Estimates

The NFU were out yesterday with an ENGLISH wheat production estimate of 13.5 MMT, only marginally up on last year despite a higher acreage.

"Despite increased plantings production, this year is expected to be very similar to last due to lower yields. Production will be down on the five-year average by around 400,000 tonnes," they say.

It may be worth considering that twelve months ago the NFU pegged the English wheat crop at 12.9 MMT and the UK crop at 13.9 MMT. Both estimates subsequently proved to be half a million tonnes too low.

They haven't yet put a figure on barley output, but one is expected in the next fortnight. By coincidence last year's September barley estimate was also around half a million on the low side.

The dry spring is being blamed for lower yields, it will be interesting to discover if they see that being replicated in Scotland, where the wheat harvest is ongoing.