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22/10/10 -- Soybeans

Nov CBOT soybeans settled 2c lower at USD11.99 1/2; December soymeal ended USD2.50 lower at USD330.90; December soyoil closed 6 points higher at 48.30. There were no fresh sales to China for once today, although the USDA did report a sale of 165,000 MT to "unknown". Still, Chinese demand continues to drive the market, with sales to them currently running 14% up on year ago levels for the current 2010/11 marketing year. Chinese think-tank CNGOIC forecast 2011 soybean imports at a record 54 MMT, some private analysts are talking as high as 60 MMT next year.


CBOT Dec corn ended 4 1/4c lower at USD5.60; CBOT March corn ended 3 1/4c lower at USD5.72 1/4. Dec closed 3 cents lower on the week after failing to add to last week's two year highs. Export sales were very poor Thursday, prompting demand concerns at these levels. Fund length in December will start to get rolled over before very long, potentially pressuring the front month. News from China indicates that corn production there may be worse than previous estimates, and that they may need to import corn in 2011. Rumours circulating earlier in the week of US sales to China remain unconfirmed, but should show up in next week's export sales report if true.


CBOT Dec wheat settled up 2c at USD6.70 3/4 a bushel; KCBT Dec wheat rose 2 1/2c to USD7.19; MGEX Dec wheat fell 1/4c to USD7.28 1/4c. Dec CBOT wheat lost over 30 cents on the week. Dryness in the US Plains remains a concern, "this year’s winter wheat is the 3rd slowest emerging crop on record using historical crop progress from USDA," say Martell Crop Projections. A La Nina induced winter drought would most certainly not be what the doctor ordered following on from this year's crop losses in Russia and the FSU. Production prospects in Argentina seem to be improving, but there are bigger question marks hanging over the outlook in Australia.