Nogger's Blog

29/10/10 -- The overnight grains were lower across the board, consolidating from another week of solid gains that sees Dec CBOT wheat up 47 1/2 cents, Dec corn up 19 cents and Jan soybeans up 24 1/2 cents.

Overnight Dec wheat finished 4 1/2c lower, with Dec corn down 5 1/2c and Jan beans 9 3/4c lower.

Almost everyone is dangerously bullish, even me. Unlike some though my eyes are peeled for danger signs.

One may be the news of China apparently rejecting a cargo of US corn citing "unsanctioned GMO" strains. Not only did they fail to show up as a buyer of US corn last week in yesterday's USDA weekly export sales report, now they are rejecting what they have bought.

Russia's winter grain plantings are more advanced than many had feared, and they say that they will up spring seedings by almost a quarter too. Anecdotal reports from our Ukraine agronomist buddy Mike Lee, who has ventured over the border into Russia, say that "the wheat I have seen here in Russia is looking mighty impressive, plenty of well developed, healthy looking plants."

Shorter term Russia are out of the market and have agreed to import 2 MMT of corn from Ukraine.

US weather is fine for wrapping up the corn and bean harvest, but not too great for developing wheat ahead of winter dormancy.

It is of course month-end too today so we may well see some profit-taking ahead of the weekend.

Early calls: corn 4-5c lower, beans 8-10c lower, wheat 4-5c lower.