29/10/10 -- Unconfirmed reports suggest that a cargo of US corn has been rejected upon arrival in China on the grounds of "unsanctioned GMO content".

The Ukraine government have said that they will finally allow all grain vessels held up awaiting customs clearance to depart. Reports circulating yesterday that sunflower oil and meal exports are now being held back would appear to be true. Whether the same applies to rape by-products, or indeed the seed itself, is still unclear.

Yesterday's news that Ukraine had agreed to supply 2 MMT of "grains" to Russia would appear to be part of this season's estimated 11 MMT corn crop. This tonnage is in addition to the 2 MMT of corn that is allowed to be exported in the remainder of 2010 under the government's recently introduced export quota system. Grain exporters will apparently be invited to bid to obtain these quotas by the cash-hungry government. Considering that they owe a fortune in VAT refunds to the same companies that they are now inviting to bid for the right to export that's pretty rich indeed.

Russian farmers have planted 14 million hectares of a likely final total of 15.5 million ha of winter grains, according to the Ag Ministry. Winter grain output in 2011 will total 40 MMT, with spring grain plantings increasing from 28.5 million ha to 35 million ha spring grain production will total 45 MMT in 2011, they say. Problem sorted, in theory. Still, with domestic consumption of 75-77 MMT that would only leave a relatively modest 8-10 MMT or so surplus with which to replenish this season's depleted stocks, leaving very little over to export in 2011/12.

The Chinese are to add a further 11 MMT of soybean crush capacity in the current season, bringing their total capacity to 95 MMT. CNGOIC say that the country will crush 58 MMT of soybeans this season, although other private estimates suggest a higher number than that.