The USDA Unsurprisingly Surprise Us

08/10/10 -- No surprises to see another USDA report littered with surprises. This time they've come up with a corn production number of 12.664 billion bushels, down sharply from from 13.160 billion last months and 147 million bushels below the lowest trade estimate.

Yields were pegged at 155.8bpa, well under the lowest trade estimate of 158.2bpa and 4.2bpa below the average expectation. Corn ending stocks dropped to 902 million bu, down from 1.708 million last year and also lower than the lowest trade estimate within a range of 997 million to 1.392 billion. That represents 57.8 days of supply, the second tightest of the past 35 years.

They also gave us a soybean crop of 3.408 billion bu on yield of 44.4bpa. That's down from 3.483 billion and 44.7bpa last month, but pretty close to trade expectations. The big surprise for beans though was ending stocks down to 265 million from 350 million last month, again lower than the lowest trade estimate.

Wheat stocks were pegged at 853 million bushels, down from 902 million last month and a bit lower than the average trade guess of 873 million.

Early reaction is calling for corn up the 30 cents limit this afternoon with beans called 20-30c higher and wheat up 10-15 cents.

Here we go again then, Nov London wheat currently GBP7/tonne higher with Paris wheat up around EUR10/tonne.