Nogger's Blog

The USDA Numbers

10/04/12 -- Here they are folks, the eagerly awaited USDA numbers. They've cut Brazilian soybean production 2.5 MMT from last month to 66.0 MMT, which is a bit more aggressive than the trade was expecting and falls half a million below the lowest trade estimate. Argentina's soybean output is trimmed half a million to 21.5 MMT - in line with the average trade guess.

US ending stocks are cut 25 million bushels for soybeans to 250 million - pretty much bang on what was expected as too is US wheat ending stocks trimmed from 825 million to 793 million. A bit of a bearish surprise is US corn stocks left unchanged at 801 million bushels.

World wheat stocks are cut almost 3.3 MMT to 206.3 MMT, when the trade was only expecting a reduction of 1 MMT. World corn and soybean stocks are in line with trade estimates.

All in all it reinforces the bullish tone for soybeans and could be called a bit bearish for corn given the pace of early plantings.

The USDA Numbers

12/01/12 -- The USDA's eagerly awaited raft of important numbers including US winter wheat plantings, revised 2011 production numbers for corn and beans, quarterly stocks and 2011/12 ending stocks:

USDA Quarterly Stocks Estimates (billion bushels):


USDA 2011 Production Estimates (billion bushels):



USDA 2011 Yield Estimates (bushels/acre):


USDA 2012 Crop Winter Wheat Acres (million acres):

The USDA Numbers

09/11/11 -- The long awaited USDA numbers are out and US corn yields are pegged a bushel and acre lower than the average trade guess at 146.7bpa, with US production coming in fractionally lower than anticipated at 12.31 billion bushels.

For soybeans yields came in at 41.3bpa, 0.2bpa down on last month and 0.1bpa lower than what was expected. Production was a tad under the average trade guess at 3.046 billion bushels.

US ending stocks however were higher across the board compared with trade estimates, with corn coming in at 843 million, beans at 195 million and wheat at 828 million.

World corn ending stocks were a little lower than expected, with soybeans bang on the money and wheat 1 MMT up on trade forecasts at 202.6 MMT.

Here's the numbers in detail:

USDA - The Magic Numbers

11/05/11 -- Here's the magic numbers from our little chums in Washington boys and girls. Both 2010/11 soybean and corn ending stocks are raised from last month, with the USDA cutting exports:

Big Day In Store?

09/11/10 -- It's a big day today with the USDA out with their latest production and stocks data. We seem to have a two-tier market developing these days. What do we think the real numbers are? And what do we think that the USDA will say that the real numbers are?

As can be seen lower down on this blog, the trade is forecasting corn yields down a little over a bushel an acre this month and corn production down around 110 million bushels. Soybean yields and production are called slightly higher than last time. Ending stocks are seen lower on both.

A significant portion of the trade seem to believe that whatever corn figure the USDA come up with, it will be erring on the side of caution and that the reality of the situation is in fact worse ie. final output WILL be lower than whatever they say today.

Production numbers from around the world will also be scrutinised this afternoon. As ever there will be plenty who's own Chinese production and stocks estimates, for both corn and wheat, will be substantially lower than the ones served up by the USDA.

Whether the market really believes the USDA numbers or not, it usually but not always, trades them as if they are fact. For a while at least.

What they will throw at us this afternoon is anybody's guess, what is a fairly safe bet however is that it will be inaccurate. Good game this isn't it?

If it's bearish then I think the market will see any downside as a buying opportunity, if it's bullish then I think it will merely vindicate the bulls that they were right all along.

So we might not trade higher tonight, but we probably will be higher by this time next week whatever happens. IMHO.

The USDA Unsurprisingly Surprise Us

08/10/10 -- No surprises to see another USDA report littered with surprises. This time they've come up with a corn production number of 12.664 billion bushels, down sharply from from 13.160 billion last months and 147 million bushels below the lowest trade estimate.

Yields were pegged at 155.8bpa, well under the lowest trade estimate of 158.2bpa and 4.2bpa below the average expectation. Corn ending stocks dropped to 902 million bu, down from 1.708 million last year and also lower than the lowest trade estimate within a range of 997 million to 1.392 billion. That represents 57.8 days of supply, the second tightest of the past 35 years.

They also gave us a soybean crop of 3.408 billion bu on yield of 44.4bpa. That's down from 3.483 billion and 44.7bpa last month, but pretty close to trade expectations. The big surprise for beans though was ending stocks down to 265 million from 350 million last month, again lower than the lowest trade estimate.

Wheat stocks were pegged at 853 million bushels, down from 902 million last month and a bit lower than the average trade guess of 873 million.

Early reaction is calling for corn up the 30 cents limit this afternoon with beans called 20-30c higher and wheat up 10-15 cents.

Here we go again then, Nov London wheat currently GBP7/tonne higher with Paris wheat up around EUR10/tonne.

The USDA Numbers

Here's a quick note of the scores on the relevant doors from the USDA today:

Wheat production
               USDA Jun   Avg Est   USDA May   2009
-------------------------------------------------------
All winter     1.482      1.453     1.458     1.523
HRW wheat      0.979      0.939     0.960     0.919
SRW wheat      0.284      0.288     0.283     0.404
White wheat    0.219      0.217     0.215     0.200
-------------------------------------------------------
2009/10 Ending stocks
              USDA Jun    Avg Est   USDA May  2008/09
Corn           1.603       1.724     1.738     1.673
Soybeans       0.185       0.184     0.190     0.138
Wheat          0.930       0.947     0.950     0.657
-------------------------------------------------------
2010/11 Ending stocks
              USDA Jun    Avg Est    USDA May
Corn           1.573       1.831     1.818
Soybeans       0.360       0.359     0.365 
Wheat          0.991       0.987     0.997
-------------------------------------------------------

The corn numbers look surprisingly low compared with what was expected.

Forecasts For Thursday's USDA Report

The USDA are out Thursday with their latest supply & demand and stocks estimates, here's a quick note of what the trade is expecting (in billion bushels):

Wheat production
                   Avg        May USDA       2009
---------------------------------------------------
All wheat         2.054         2.043        2.216
All winter        1.453         1.458        1.523
HRW wheat         0.939         0.960        0.919
SRW wheat         0.288         0.283        0.404
White wheat       0.217         0.215        0.200
---------------------------------------------------
2009/10 Ending stocks
                   Avg        May USDA      2008/09
Corn              1.724         1.738        1.673
Soybeans          0.184         0.190        0.138
Wheat             0.947         0.950        0.657
---------------------------------------------------
2010/11 Ending stocks
                   Avg        May USDA
Corn              1.831         1.818
Soybeans          0.359         0.365 
Wheat             0.987         0.997
---------------------------------------------------

The USDA Report - The Nitty Gritty

Here's the scores on the doors boys & girls:

US Ending Stocks (billion bushels)
-----------------------------------------------------------
          USDA    Avg Guess     Range        Jan     Nogger
Corn      1.719     1.748    1.602-1.815    1.764     1.770
Soybeans  0.210     0.219    0.170-0.245    0.245     0.225
Wheat     0.981     0.973    0.876-1.001    0.976     0.985
-----------------------------------------------------------

Other highlights are that they raised Brazilian soybean production by a million to 66 MMT, but left Argy output unchanged at 53 MMT. Argy corn output was upped from 15 MMT to 17.2 MMT.

World corn ending stocks dropped to 134 MT, or 60.4 days of supply - the 3rd tightest in the past 34 years. World wheat production was upped 1.4 MMT, although consumption was also raised, up by 1.1 MMT, leaving ending stocks up 0.3 MMT.

USDA Expectations

If they can make it in through the heavy snow that fell over the weekend the USDA will release their latest stocks and world supply and demand numbers at 13.30 GMT. Monday's export inspections report was not issued due to the snow, that is now rescheduled for release this afternoon too. Here's a note of what the trade is expecting from the stocks report, plus my estimate:

US Ending Stocks (billion bushels)
-------------------------------------------------------
           Avg Guess     Range         Jan     Nogger
Corn         1.748    1.602-1.815     1.764     1.770
Soybeans     0.219    0.170-0.245     0.245     0.225
Wheat        0.973    0.876-1.001     0.976     0.985
-------------------------------------------------------

And here is a note of what the USDA had to say on world production/stocks last month, along with my guess on what they might say today:

World Ending Stocks (MMT)  USDA Jan    Nogger
-------------------------------------------------------
Corn                        136.19      138.0
Wheat                       195.60      197.0
Soybeans                     59.80       60.5
-------------------------------------------------------
World Production (MMT)
-------------------------------------------------------
Brazil soybeans               65.0       65.0
Argy soybeans                 53.0       53.0
Brazil corn                   51.0       52.0 
Argy corn                     15.0       17.0
Australia wheat               22.5       22.2
Canada wheat                  26.5       26.5
Russia wheat                  61.7       61.7     

USDA Global Production Highlights

In it's WASDE report there were several significant changes:

Wheat

Australian output was raised half a million to 23.5 MMT, EU-27 production was seen up over half a million to 139.08 MMT, Canadian output up 2 MMT to 24.5 MMT and Russian production up by a million to a still rather low looking 57.5 MMT.

They resisted the temptation to drop Argy production, leaving it unchanged at 8 MMT and Ukraine output was also left unchanged at 20 MMT.

Soybeans

Brazilian production was left steady at 62 MMT and Argy output raise from 51 MMT to 52.5 MMT.

Corn

Chinese production was lowered 5 MMT to 155 MMT.

Global Ending Stocks

Wheat was raised only slightly to 186.73 MMT, from 186.61 MMT last month. Corn was dropped almost 3 MMT to 136.3 MMT and beans were increased more than 4 MMT to 54.79 MMT.

USDA Report Expectations

Wednesday sees the release of the USDA's latest musings on Supply & Demand and ending stocks. For 2009/10 they are expected to reduced corn and wheat production, partly due to a reduced planted area and also a cut in yield due to late plantings.

Soybean ending stocks for 2008/09 are expected to be cut further from last month's 130 million bushels, and although some trade estimtaes are that stocks will fall well below 100 million, nobody really seems to think that the USDA themselves will come up with a number that low:

PRODUCTION   ALLENDALE  DOW JONES  BLOOMBERG   USDA MAY  
Corn           11.935                           12.090   
Soybeans        3.195                            3.195    
All wheat       1.993     2.026      2.020       2.026    
Winter wheat    1.492     1.496      1.502       1.502    
08/09 CARRYOUT
US Corn         1.610     1.607      1.608       1.600
US Soybeans     0.099     0.114      0.113       0.130
US Wheat        0.662     0.671      0.672       0.669
09/10 CARRYOUT
US Corn         1.015     1.071      1.052       1.145
US Soybeans     0.243     0.211      0.221       0.230
US Wheat        0.605     0.606      0.611       0.637

USDA Report Expectations

We get the USDA's latest musings on production and supply & demand tomorrow at 13.30BST, here's what the trade is expecting:

Wheat Production
             Avg Est     Range
All Wheat     2.091   1.994-2.145

2008/09 End Stocks
Corn          1.711   1.645-1.879
Beans         0.130   0.086-0.148
Wheat         0.687   0.655-0.700

2009/10 End Stocks
Corn          1.383   1.129-1.720
Beans         0.239   0.148-0.528
Wheat         0.653   0.570-0.742

USDA Numbers - Wheat Acres Surprise

Wheat

All wheat plantings for the 2009 crop were 42.098 million acres, substantially lower than the average trade guess of 44.178 million acres, and around 4 million below last season's 46.181 million. The lowest trade estimate for wheat plantings was 42.920 million acres, so this number from the USDA was almost 1 million acres lower than anybody else anticipated, and also double the decrease that had been estimated at 9% down as opposed to the 4.5% expected.

Wheat ending stocks were 655 million bushels, against average expectation of 600 million bushels, and compared last year's 306 million.

Corn

The final 2008 corn crop was pegged at 12.010 billion bushels, slightly above the average estimate of 11.982 billion bushels. In November, the USDA put corn at 12.020 billion bushels, and 2007's crop was a record 13.074 billion bushels.

Corn ending stocks were 1.790 billion bushels, substantially higher than the average estimate of 1.489 billion bushels.

Soybeans

The final 2008 output was 2.959 billion bushels, versus the average trade guess of 2.910 billion bushels, and compared to November's guess of 2.921 billion and the 2007 total of 2.676 billion. Analysts’ estimates ranged from 2.879 billion to 2.940 billion bushels, so this figure was higher that anyone had anticipated.

Soybean ending stocks were 225 million bushels compared to the average estimate of 186 million bushels.

Early Thoughts On Monday's USDA Report

The USDA are out Monday with a raft of production, stocks and planting estimates.

Slightly lower figures are expected for US 2008 corn and soybean production numbers, with the likes of Allendale having corn at 11.965 billion bushels, compared to the USDA's most recent estimate of 12.020 billion.

For soybeans Allendale say 2.916 billion bushels, down 5 million from the last USDA guess.

The really interesting bit, potentially, is the USDA's first estimate on winter wheat plantings. Everyone is expecting fewer acres, but by how much exactly? Allendale are projecting the total planted area at 45.131 million acres, compared to 2008's 46.181 million. Informa are saying much lower at 44.08 million acres. Some other estimates are coming in even lower still.

Additionally, the USDA will be updating quarterly and monthly domestic stocks estimates, along with their world stocks and production numbers. Quarterly soybean stocks are also worth watching, and could come in at a record low of 2.148 billion bushels on strong exports during the first quarter of 2008/09, according to Allendale.

USDA To Cut Soybean Exports And Increase Stocks?

Oct 10 sees the USDA release its revised WASDE report. There are expectations around that they will be making cuts to its estimates for soybean exports for this crop year of some 50-120m bushels.

The Quarterly Stocks report Monday that increased Sep. 1 stocks from 140 m bu to 205. Add that extra 65m to an export reduction of 50-120m and we get 2008/09 ending stocks maybe being raised from the current tight 140m to a much more healthy 250-320m.

All that of course assumes that they leave 2008/09 production unchanged. Reports of early cut soybeans appear to be indicating disappointing yields.

USDA Report: Corn Snippets

This afternoon's eagerly awaited USDA crop report pegged 2008 US corn production lower than last month's estimate of 12.288 billion bushels, and also below the average trade estimate of 12.152 billion at 12.072 billion bushels.

Yields were cut 2.7 bu/acre to 152.3 bu/acre.

The numbers are far from a disaster as if realised production and yields would be the second highest on record.

Corn ending stocks of 1.018 bb, down from 1.133 bb in August, reflect the cut in production, partly offset by a 100 mb cut in feed use.

Ending stocks of this magnitude should cap any rallies from getting too carried away tonight.

USDA Report: Soybean Snippets

This afternoon's eagerly awaited USDA crop report pegged 2008 US soybean production lower than last month's estimate of 2.973 billion bushels, and also below the average trade estimate of 2.950 billion at 2.934 billion bushels, slicing half a bushel/acre off the yield estimate to 40 bu/acre.

The Brazilian crop was left unchanged at 62.50MMT and Argentine production upped a million to 50.50MMT. Chinese production was raised half a million to 16.5MMT.

USDA Report: Wheat Snippets

Today's USDA report pegged world wheat production up slightly from last months report at 610.87MMT.

World ending stocks were increased from 136.2MMT to 139.9MMT.

The EU-27 wheat crop was seen at 147.2MMT, up from 143.17MMT last month, and the Australian crop revised down to 22MMT from 25MMT.

US 2008 all wheat production was unchanged at 2.462 billion bushels.

USDA Report: Soy acres much higher than expected

This is a summary of today's eagerly awaited USDA 2008 planting intentions & March 1st stocks report:

corn acreage at 86.014 million vs avg trade guess of 87.387 million and 93.6 million in 2007,

soybean acreage at 74.793 million vs avg trade guess of 71.526 million and 63.631 million in 2007,

all wheat acreage at 63.803 million vs avg trade guess of 63.625 million and 60.433 in 2007.

March 1 stocks:

corn at 6.859 billion bushels vs avg trade guess of 7.076 billion bu.,

soybean stocks at 1.428 billion bushels vs avg trade guess of 1.352 billion bu.

wheat stocks at 710 million bushels vs avg trade guess of 668 million bushels.

The soybean acreage figure stands out as being more than half a million acres more than the highest trade estimate and more than three million above the average trade estimate.

The corn figure, whilst not below the lowest trade estimate is towards the lower end of what was expected.