Nogger's Blog

29/11/10 -- Jan11 London wheat closed GBP2.25 higher at GBP179.25/tonne, with Nov11 up GBP1.00 to GBP151.00/tonne. Jan11 Paris wheat rose EUR4.00 to EUR222.25/tonne and Nov11 was EUR2.25 higher to EUR199.25/tonne.

It was 27th March 2008 that a front month closed higher than this for London wheat. Ideas that UK wheat exports are careering out of control are starting to mount. Nobody knows for sure how much wheat is still on merchants' books to ship this season, but it looks likely that Defra's predicted 1.3 MMT has already left the country.

Widespread talk now is that 2 MMT will be exported during the current marketing year, although that figure also seems too low based on what has been shipped already.

However, reports that it is now cheaper to ship feed wheat into the country rather than buy it domestically should put a limit on the extent of further price rises.

Russia is in the market to import around 3-5 MMT of grain, according to various media reports. Argentina are in the frame to be one of the main sellers, with Ukraine not far behind. That's what the gossip suggests.

Even so, they reputedly have almost 10 MMT in intervention stocks, and discussions are ongoing as to whether - and at what price - to release those onto the market.

Winter seems to have finally arrived in Ukraine, with crops in generally much better condition than twelve months ago.