Nogger's Blog

29/11/10 -- The overnight grains closed mostly firmer but well off session highs, with beans around 2c higher, wheat up 4-5c and corn 2-3c firmer.

Korean tensions seem to be easing after South Korea cancelled tomorrow's planned military exercise on the island attacked by the North. China has been vocal in it's determination to prevent things getting out of hand.

Concerns over EU debt problems haven't gone away despite the EUR85 billion bailout for Ireland.

A significant part of Argentine is dry and getting worse after weekend forecast rains disappointed, with QT Weather saying that "this overly dry trend is going to continue for at least the next several weeks."

There are also weather concerns for Australian wheat with persistent rains in the east proving to be a mixed blessing, delaying the harvest and potentially harming quality.

The US wheat crop isn't out of the woods yet either. The USDA will report on crop conditions after tonight's close.

There is widespread talk of Russia actively negotiating to buy grain from Argentina, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and beyond. There are also lots of ideas that spring plantings will not be able to fully compensate for the shortfall in what should have, but didn't, get planted in the winter.

That would potentially seem to put Russia out of the export market, certainly as the kind of large volume seller we have become used to in the past few years, until the second half of 2012.

China is also being mooted as a potential suitor for Argentine corn. Some reports also suggest that they bought more US soybeans over the weekend.

The USDA have just announced the sale of 120,000 MT of corn to Mexico.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Beans up 2-3 cents, corn up 1 to 2 cents, and wheat up 4 to 6 cents.