Nogger's Blog

05/01/11 -- Jan London wheat closed GBP2.25 lower at GBP198.00/tonne, with Nov GBP0.70 easier at GBP170.05/tonne. Jan Paris wheat rose EUR3.00 at EUR256.50/tonne, whilst new crop Nov climbed EUR2.00 to EUR226.00/tonne.

It was a topsy-turvy day with French wheat lower for most of the day in sympathy with the overnight Globex market for US wheat.

Early calls for a sell-off in US wheat and other agri-commodities appeared to be coming true shortly after America opened, although an abrupt turnaround late into EU trading hours turned the market on it's head. That about face came a little too late to influence London markets however, which may again end up playing catch up in the morning.

Crude oil was languishing around the USD88-88.50/barrel mark for much of the day but pushed back above USD90/barrel late on in a broad-based commodity recovery.

The US dollar was higher against the euro, aiding the recovery of Parisian wheat. Tender activity from Algeria and Tunisia was also seen as supportive.

Weather forecasts for Argentina are fluctuating by the day, although the trade seems generally convinced that some crop losses to pollinating corn have occurred. Analysts are divided though on how bad the damage has been. Heavy rainfall is now predicted in southernmost growing areas, although the outlook remains hot and dry in the north.

Elsewhere frigid temperatures keep a grip on huge area of Asia, Russia Siberia, Kazakhstan, and Western & Northern China at 35 to 40 F below zero, according to Martell Crop Projections.