Nogger's Blog

05/01/11 -- The overnights closed lower pressured by outside influences with crude oil lower and the dollar firmer on better than expected jobs data. Beans closed around 5-7c lower, with corn down 6-7c and wheat 10-12c easier.

The funds seem to be gearing up to sell grains starting Friday in what many of the newswires are calling "rebalancing" of positions to start the year. That is encouraging some of the smaller players to get out now, bank profits and sit on their hands for a few days.

The fundamentals haven't changed a lot, you could even say they've maybe worsened this past few days with both the Argentine bean and corn crops being revised lower by private analysts.

Certainly weather conditions in Australia haven't improved either. Concerns still remain for US wheat on the Plains too.

The USDA are out next week with their latest revised WASDE and stocks numbers, plus winter wheat plantings. There's a fair bit of curve ball potential there, and that also may be encouraging some money exiting the market.

Before that we've got the USDA's first weekly export sales report of 2011 due before the opening tomorrow. That could be a fairly subdued affair given that the period covered will be the week between Christmas and New Year.

Looks like we could be going lower in the short-term ahead of next week's report. Don't be surprised though to see excessive weakness viewed as a buying opportunity, and all bets could be off again if the USDA throw in a shock or two next week. Let's face it they have form in this department.

In last year's January report they raised US corn production for 2009 when everybody was expecting a drop. Corn subsequently closed limit down.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: Corn 5-7 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents lower, and wheat 10-12 cents lower.