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Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 13:57 | Categorized as

12/01/11 -- The numbers are out and there's a lot to digest, but the gist is that it's almost universally bullish, perhaps slightly less so for wheat.

CORN

US yields and production for 2010 were cut more than anticipated, with yields down 1.5 bu/acre from last month and 1.1 bu/acre lower than the average trade estimate and 0.2 bu/acre below the lowest trade estimate.

US 2010/11 ending stocks were dropped 87 million compared to the 54 million expected, to an uncomfortably low 745 million, well below the 1 billion "comfort blanket".

Argy corn production was decreased 1.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT and world ending stocks reduced by 3 MMT to 127 MMT, giving us the second tightest stocks/use ratio in the last 35 years, equivalent to just over 55 days of supply.

SOYBEANS

US yields and production were cut for 2010, contrary to market expectations of a slight increase. Yields fell by half a bushel to 43.5 bu/acre.

US Dec 1st stocks came in at 2.28 billion bushels against expectations of 2.35 billion. Ending stocks for 2010/11 fell 25 million bushels from last month to 140 million - equivalent to only 15 days of supply - the tightest of the past 40 years.

Argy soybean production was cut by a conservative 1.5 MMT to 50.5 MMT, although that's still well above some other local private estimates. World ending stocks were reduced 2 MMT to 58 MMT.

WHEAT

US winter wheat planted area rose 10% to just over 41 million acres, slightly less than the average guess.

Dec 1st stocks came in 10 million bushels less than anticipated and 2010/11 ending stocks were down 40 million bushels from last month to 818 million, some 24 million lower than expected. US wheat exports are now seen at their highest level since 1993/93.

Australia's wheat crop was cut just 0.5 MMT to 25 MMT and Argentina's was raised a similar amount to 14 MMT. The world wheat crop for 2010/11 was seen down 0.8 MMT, although global ending stocks were pegged 1.3 MMT higher at 178 MMT.

SUMMARY

The numbers are seen as bullish across the board, with early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session varying quite a bit at the moment. Some are saying beans up 15/20 and others up 30 or even 40c higher. Calls on corn are generally up 15/20c with wheat seen 10-20c higher. I'd tend to side with the higher end of these estimations.