Nogger's Blog

USDA Stocks/Plantings

31/03/11 -- The USDA pegged US spring plantings higher than trade expectations for corn and lower than anticipated for beans. All wheat acres are also higher than expected:

March 1st quarterly grains stocks show lower corn and bean inventories than the trade was anticipating, and more wheat:

USDA Scores On The Doors

10/03/11 -- Here's the all important numbers guys and gals:

WHEAT

World wheat ending stocks pegged at 181.9 MMT vs 177.8 MMT last month and the 177.77 MMT expected by the trade. They upped the Australian crop by 1 MMT to 26 MMT, and did likewise for Argentina to 15 MMT. EU-27 output trimmed slightly to 136.1 MMT from 136.5 MMT in Feb. US wheat ending stock pegged at 843 million bushels vs 818 last month and trade expectations of 810 million. Pretty bearish all round.

CORN

The Brazilian crop upped 2 MMT to 53 MMT and the Mexican crop reduced 2 MMT to 22 MMT. Argentina left unchanged at 22 MMT. World ending stocks increased to 123.1 MMT from 122.5 MMT and the 121.6 MMT expected. US ending stocks seen at 675 million bushels, unchanged from last month and a bit above the 665 million anticipated. Neutral to slightly bearish.

BEANS

Brazil's crop upped 1.5 MMT to 70.0 MMT, Argentina left unchanged at 49.5 MMT. China's crop also increased by 800,000 MT to 15.2 MMT. World ending stocks 58.33 MMT, up a tad from last month but below the 59.2 MMT expected. US ending stocks left unchanged at 140 million bushels. Neutral to slightly bearish.

EXPORT SALES

Wheat sales of 575,700 MT for 2010/11 and 81,500 MT for delivery in 2011/2012 were on the low side of expectations for combined sales of 700 TMT-1 MMT. Corn sales of 477,200 MT old crop and 298,800 MT were in line with expectations of 700 TMT-1 MMT. Bean sales were 412,100 MT old crop and 57,900 MT new crop - in line compared with estimates of 350-500 TMT.

Wheat looks like the poor relation this afternoon with early calls of 10-15c down, corn is called 5-7c lower and beans 8-10c easier.

Report Reaction

12/01/11 -- The numbers are out and there's a lot to digest, but the gist is that it's almost universally bullish, perhaps slightly less so for wheat.

CORN

US yields and production for 2010 were cut more than anticipated, with yields down 1.5 bu/acre from last month and 1.1 bu/acre lower than the average trade estimate and 0.2 bu/acre below the lowest trade estimate.

US 2010/11 ending stocks were dropped 87 million compared to the 54 million expected, to an uncomfortably low 745 million, well below the 1 billion "comfort blanket".

Argy corn production was decreased 1.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT and world ending stocks reduced by 3 MMT to 127 MMT, giving us the second tightest stocks/use ratio in the last 35 years, equivalent to just over 55 days of supply.

SOYBEANS

US yields and production were cut for 2010, contrary to market expectations of a slight increase. Yields fell by half a bushel to 43.5 bu/acre.

US Dec 1st stocks came in at 2.28 billion bushels against expectations of 2.35 billion. Ending stocks for 2010/11 fell 25 million bushels from last month to 140 million - equivalent to only 15 days of supply - the tightest of the past 40 years.

Argy soybean production was cut by a conservative 1.5 MMT to 50.5 MMT, although that's still well above some other local private estimates. World ending stocks were reduced 2 MMT to 58 MMT.

WHEAT

US winter wheat planted area rose 10% to just over 41 million acres, slightly less than the average guess.

Dec 1st stocks came in 10 million bushels less than anticipated and 2010/11 ending stocks were down 40 million bushels from last month to 818 million, some 24 million lower than expected. US wheat exports are now seen at their highest level since 1993/93.

Australia's wheat crop was cut just 0.5 MMT to 25 MMT and Argentina's was raised a similar amount to 14 MMT. The world wheat crop for 2010/11 was seen down 0.8 MMT, although global ending stocks were pegged 1.3 MMT higher at 178 MMT.

SUMMARY

The numbers are seen as bullish across the board, with early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session varying quite a bit at the moment. Some are saying beans up 15/20 and others up 30 or even 40c higher. Calls on corn are generally up 15/20c with wheat seen 10-20c higher. I'd tend to side with the higher end of these estimations.

The Magic Numbers

12/01/11 -- The USDA's eagerly awaited raft of important numbers including US winter wheat plantings, revised 2010 production numbers for corn and beans, quarterly stocks and 2010/11 ending stocks estimates look pretty bullish across the board:

USDA Quarterly Stocks Estimates (billion bushels):


USDA 2010 Production Estimates (billion bushels):



USDA 2010 Yield Estimates (bushels/acre):


USDA 2011 Crop Winter Wheat Acres (million acres):

The USDA And Women's Bra's

12/01/11 -- Just when you think you've got them sussed, both can prove difficult when you least expect it. I used to consider myself a bit of an expert at the old "one-handed undo" in the old days. Women say we can't multi-task, well call me an old romantic but I could snog, grope and simultaneously undo a bra with my spare hand (left or right, I'm ambidextrous me) all at the same time back then.

But then when I started seeing MrsN#1 it was like trying to do a rubic's in the mirror, in the dark with one hand. That was until I realised that she was wearing a completely different type of bra to the one me gran used to wear. :0

And so it is with the USDA, after years of thinking you've got them sussed they start coming out with all sorts of outlandish numbers. It's a bit like watching play your cards right where it's "higher or lower than a queen?"..."lower"..."oh, unlucky it's a king."

So what do they have in store for us this afternoon, who can tell? Maybe today's shock will be that there are no shocks and everything comes in pretty much as anticipated.

2010 CROP PRODUCTION

Only relatively minor revisions are anticipated to last year's yields and production estimates for US corn and beans. Corn yields are seen falling 0.4 bu/acre to 153.9 bu/acre and bean yields are forecast to rise 0.1 bu/acre to 44.0 bu/acre.

WINTER WHEAT AREA

There's plenty of room for a surprise here, with the range of estimates pretty wide, varying from 39.377-43.200 million acres. There is a school of thought that record high cotton prices may have "stolen" some of those anticipated wheat acres and that the real planted area may be lower than many people think.

There is also now a large question mark over exactly how many of those acres that were planted will actually make it through to harvest. Given the poor crop ratings at the end of November and the difficult winter conditions since then, the high prices of other crops is providing an incentive to rip up or graze poorly established wheat and plant something else in the spring.

2010/11 US ENDING STOCKS

The market is expecting downward revisions for wheat, corn and beans. Wheat is expected to fall on the back of increased exports, and possibly increased domestic usage due to a tight corn stock situation.

Corn stocks are seen falling on the back of reduced 2010 production and increased ethanol usage. The market seems to be disregarding the possibility that high prices may be rationing export demand and that projected exports for 2010/11 could fall, leaving carryout virtually unchanged.

Soybean ending stocks are also seen lower on improved export potential and increased domestic usage following the re-introduction of the blenders tax credit.

QUARTERLY STOCKS

Wheat stocks are estimated at 1.938 billion bushels as at Dec 1st 2010, the largest second-quarter stocks since the 1987/88.

Corn stocks are pegged at 10.067 billion bushels - the smallest first-quarter stocks number of the past four years. Bear in mind here that both the last two quarterly stocks reports (June and September, 2010) have provided major surprises. Many felt that the September report may have included some early harvested new crop corn. The continued expansion of corn usage by the ethanol sector however may be starting to impact upon corn usage in feed, given the increased availability of DDGS.

Soybean stocks are seen at 2.345 billion bushels, indicating robust first quarter usage/exports - the second largest first quarter usage ever in fact on the back of strong demand from China.

WORLD STOCKS/PRODUCTION

World wheat ending stocks are expected to decline by around 2 MMT to 174.61 MMT, still a healthy 26.2% stocks/use ratio.

Global corn ending stocks are seen falling by around 2.5 MMT, cutting stocks/use to 15%, the tightest since 1973/4. Argentine production could fall 1-2 MMT.

World soybean stocks are forecast around 1.5 MMT lower, pegging stocks/use at 22.7%. Argentine soybean production will likely be cut, but probably by only 1-2 MMT.

Tomorrow's USDA Report

11/01/11 -- If there's one thing you can usually rely on from the USDA it's to expect the unexpected. Tomorrow's report is almost universally expected to be bullish for beans and corn, so what are the chances of a bearish surprise?

Pretty good based on last year's January report, where US 2009 corn production was surprisingly raised from 12.920 billion bushels to 13.151 billion. The trade had been expecting a cut to 12.821 billion bushels on the back of the wet harvest that left uncut corn acres still standing in Midwest fields. Carryout was subsequently pegged at 1.764 billion bushels, much higher than trade expectations of 1.587 billion.

The corn market subsequently fell limit that night with 85,000 unfulfilled sell orders on corn at one stage. Beans closed down 32 1/4 cents and CBOT wheat down 36 3/4 cents.

After that corn declined for a further five sessions in a row, with beans and wheat losing for four of those five days. By the end of the sixth trading session following last year's January report corn was 54 3/4 cents lower, with beans down 70 1/2 cents and wheat off 71 3/4 cents.

By the way, the January 2009 report was also surprisingly bearish.

This year we've got the Food and Agriculture Organisation warning that world food prices are "in danger territory" and the associated rioting (and death) on the streets of assorted countries worldwide. I just wonder if the USDA might not feel that it's their duty to attempt to stem the tide with something bearish again this year?

We'll soon know.

USDA Numbers

10/01/11 -- The USDA are out on Wednesday with a raft of important numbers including US winter wheat plantings, revised 2010 production numbers for corn and beans, quarterly stocks and 2010/11 ending stocks estimates.

Here's a note of what the trade is expecting.

USDA Quarterly Stocks Estimates (billion bushels):


USDA 2010 Production Estimates (billion bushels):


USDA 2010 Yield Estimates (bushels/acre):


USDA 2011 Crop Winter Wheat Acres (million acres):

USDA World Supply Highlights

The USDA cut 2010/11 world wheat ending stocks from 193.9 MMT to 187.1 MMT. They cut EU-27 wheat production to 141.8 MMT, Canada to 20.5 MMT and Russia to 53 MMT. None of those were (predictably) by as much as private analysts have been estimating. Chinese wheat production was inexplicably raised by 2.5 MMT to 114.5 MMT.

World 2010/11 soybean ending stocks were increased to 67.76 MMT from 66.99 MMT. World 2010/11 corn ending stocks were cut from 147.3 MMT to 141.1 MMT. Chinese corn production was pegged at an unlikely 166 MMT.

What Does USDA Stand For? Unreliable Stocks, Dodgy Acreage?

That is what it seems to me. Yesterday's surprises are probably really only a correction to mistakes made as long as twelve months ago if you ask me. In the June 2009 Acreage report you may recall that our chums shocked the trade by coming in uniformly higher across the board for wheat, corn and soybeans acres than the trade had been expecting.

Despite the widely publicised late plantings and extremely wet conditions that prevailed throughout the growing season last year, they then proceeded to "up the ante" by raising yield estimates to record levels as well. Cue much back slapping and high fives all round, see "2009 Crop Year is One for the Record Books, USDA Reports" for example, on the USDA's own website.

Suddenly, fast forward twelve months, and US corn stocks are much lower than anyone thought. Lower than the lowest trade estimate. How can this be, where has it all gone? We know, or should know, what the level of exports and usage have been, so why aren't the stocks there at the end of the day?

Could it be that they were never there in the first place? Is it possible that yesterday's corn stocks numbers were simply a realignment, getting us a bit more in touch with the reality of the situation? Last year's corn crop was overstated but it's taken them until now to redress the balance?

It's not difficult to imagine, we are after all talking about the same guys who to this day STILL have Argy wheat production for 2009/10 at 9.6 MMT, when just about everybody else (including the whole of Argentina) has it at around 7.5 MMT. Now 2.1 MMT difference might not sound like a lot, so let's call it almost 22% instead. Just imagine if 22% of the world's grain stocks didn't really exist, they'd just been overstated and the USDA are just a bit too embarrassed to correct it.

So if last year's US record corn crop was overestimated, it seem a pretty fair assumption that the record soybean crop was too. Wednesday's ending stocks there also came in at lower than the lowest trade estimate. What's going on here, stealth accounting? And have they decided to hit us with all the bad news on one go here, or are there more overstates to be clawed back in the future too?

All of this kind of poses the next question of exactly how reliable are these acreage estimates then too? If you like records, and it seems that the USDA do, then this season's soybean area will be record large at just shy of 79 million acres.

Yet widespread wet weather (again) may well have curtailed farmer's best efforts to get all those soybean acres in. Remember here that it seem like we are only finding out now that what they were predicting last year, in reality, probably didn't actually happen.

Iowa has received 10 inches of rain in June, a whopping 60-75% above normal, according to Martell Crop Projections. The worst summer flooding in 100 years occurred in 1993 causing widespread damage in corn and soybeans. That year a US corn finished with a very poor yield, down 18% below trend, they say. Yet Midwest Corn Belt rainfall from April to June this year was even wetter than this "once in a century" flood of 1993.

Are all those soybean acres really going to get planted? And what are the real implications for final yields in 2010?

The truth of the matter is that we probably won't really know for sure for another twelve months (or more), and that the market will continue to trade whatever numbers the USDA decides to throw our way, as we all hang on their every word because that's the way it's always been.

You only know that the pot is empty, when the pot is empty, and then it's too late.

USDA Crop Report Highlights

This afternoon's USDA reports proved to be a bit of a mixed bag. US ending stocks came in lower than expectations for corn, wheat and beans.

World ending stocks were increased from last month's estimates for beans and corn, but lowered slightly for wheat.

US 2009/10 ending stocks (billion bushels):
               Apr 2010      Avg Trade Guess
---------------------------------------------
Soybeans        0.190            0.209
Corn            1.899            1.909
Wheat           0.950            1.001
---------------------------------------------
World 2009/10 ending stocks (MMT):
               Apr 2010         Mar 2010
Soybeans        62.96            60.67
Corn            144.2            140.2
Wheat           195.8            196.8
---------------------------------------------

The Brazilian soybean crop was upped half a million tonnes to 67.5 MMT, whilst output in Argentina was increased by 1 MMT to 54 MMT. South African corn production was raised half a million tonnes to 14 MMT.

Other than that there were no significant production changes. Chinese wheat output was left unchanged at a questionable 114.5 MMT, corn output for 2009/10 was also unchanged at 155 MMT.

USDA WASDE Numbers

The USDA's world agricultural supply and demand numbers highlights:

Argy wheat crop raised 0.6 MMT to 9.6 MMT
EU wheat production dropped a tad from 138.22 MMT to 138.14 MMT
Chinese wheat left unchanged at 114.5 MMT (the bottlers)
Chinese corn left unchanged at 155 MMT (big girl's blouses)
South Africa corn raised 2 MMT to 13.5 MMT
Argentina corn raised 3.8 MMT to 21 MMT
Brazil soybeans raised 1 MMT to 67 MMT
Argentina soybeans left unchanged at 53 MMT
Global wheat ending stocks rise 2.1 MMT

USDA Outlook Forum

The USDA's February's Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, is usually a pretty good guide to what US farmers might eventually plant each spring. I just did a quick check back to what the USDA came out with last February, to see how close to the final numbers they got. Back then they pegged the all wheat area at 58 million acres, corn at 86 million and beans at 77 million. Not too bad a guess compared to the final area of 59.1 million acres of wheat, 86.4 million acres of corn and 77.5 million acres of beans.

This year they are pegging US all wheat acres at 53.8 million (down 9%), corn area at 89 million (up 3%) and the soybeans area at 77 million (down less than 1%).

The numbers are not dramatically different to Informa, who said in January that US farmers would plant 89.65 million acres of corn this year, 77.92 million acres of soybean and 53.79 million acres of wheat.

The USDA On Wheat

Amongst a plethora or revised world supply and demand data released yesterday, the USDA had this to say about the wheat market:

"After several years of tight world wheat supplies, stocks are rebuilding on the back of consecutive bumper harvests.

"A key different from other periods of world stock growth has been the dramatic build up in US stocks relative to stocks held by the traditional foreign exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU). In just 5 years US stocks have expanded over 50% (8.5 MMT), while traditional foreign export stocks have fallen 30% (14 MMT). With US wheat priced out of many markets and with other exporters unwilling to incur the cost of holding stocks, US stocks have soared."

The report went on to say that the US is at a "competitive disadvantage" to other global exporters, citing freight and other logistical advantages.

Overall they raised world production by 2 MMT to 673.86 MMT. The main adjustments coming from an increase of 2.5 MMT in Canada to 26.5 MMT, and a 1 MMT decrease in Australia to 22.5 MMT.

Argie production was left unchanged at a probably too high 8 MMT, Chinese output was also left unchanged at a questionable 114.5 MMT. EU-27 production was tweaked slightly higher to 138.34 MMT.

Global consumption was also reduced by around 1.6 MMT, mainly in the US, the EU and surprisingly India. That leaves us with a 2.6 MMT increase in world ending stocks to 190.9 MMT.

That puts the world stocks to usage ratio at 29.5%, its highest since 2001/02, and equivalent to more than 3 1/2 months supply. In the US the stocks:usage is highest in at least the last twenty years. Blimey, and only two years ago we were running out of the stuff!

Wheat: What The USDA Might Say Friday

The USDA are out Friday lunchtime with their latest Supply & Demand numbers and also revised 2009/10 ending stocks.

I don't see there being anything earth-shattering in the figures, with plenty of private estimates already in the marketplace suggesting quite a few tweaks here and there. However when you start to write them all down, it points to some fairly significant changes.

Global wheat production looks a certainty to be revised higher from last month's 663.72 MMT, the IGC for example already have a figure of 666 MMT.

An increase could come for Europe which the USDA have at 138.485 MMT, Coceral currently say 139.56 MMT, so there is potentially a million tonnes extra there. Last month's USDA report pegged US production at 59.428 MMT, with last week's revised small grains report there is potential to add another million tonnes there too.

Russia, there's a good one, the USDA said only 56.5 MMT last time round, which is clearly well below the mark judging by SovEcon's estimate of 60-61 MMT yesterday. I don't think that they will come in that high for fear of highlighting how off-beam last month's figure was. Maybe 59 MMT, so that adds another 2.5 MMT to the global bottom line.

In Canada the USDA only had production at 22.5 MMT last month, 2 MMT under Stats Canada's recent estimate.

Kazakhstan is a bit of a dark horse with the USDA saying 14.5 MMT last month, there's a bit of potential there for an extra half million or so. In Ukraine 20 MMT is also probably on the low side, with 21 MMT nearer the mark.

Argentina is too high at 8 MMT, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange now say only 7.1 MMT and the Rosario Grain Exchange 7.4 MMT. With the USDA's 'safety first' approach, half a million off to 7.5 MMT is on the cards there.

If we tot that lot up we have an extra 4.5 MMT from Europe, the US and Russia, 2 MMT from Canada, plus say a further million from Kazakh/Ukraine less a half from the Argies, that's seven million tonnes that they could easily 'find' from last month.

That might frighten them a bit, so I'll go for an extra 5 MMT getting added to the bottom line.

With all this extra production, some tweaking of global consumption and ending stocks is also on the cards. Usage in India could certainly increase due to sharply lower summer crop production. They might also pencil in a bit of extra consumption in Europe with low prices stimulating demand and increased usage next year from the biofuel sector.

Even so, global ending stocks will probably rise by 3 MMT or so from last month's 186.61 MMT.

For US 2009/10 ending stocks, although weekly exports have held up quite well the past few weeks, the expected increase in US production will almost certainly add to those too. Potentially finding another 5 MMT+ globally will hardly improve the outlook for US exports either.

The USDA's September estimate of 743 million bushels seems likely to be pushing the 800 million mark by Friday afternoon.

What To Expect From The USDA

The USDA are out on Wednesday with their Sept 1st stocks estimates, here's a quick note of what the trade is expecting:

Corn:

Average trade guess is 1.719 billion bushels in a range of 1.665-1.803 billion.

Beans:

Average trade guess is 111 million bushels in a range of 90-135 million.

Wheat

Average trade guess is 2.131 billion bushels in a range of 2.065-2.239 billion.

They'll also report on wheat production with trade guesses for all wheat ranging from 2.154-2.244 billion bushels, with an average of 2.196 billion. All winter wheat is expected to comprise 1.542 billion of that, with spring wheat averaging 552 million bushels and durum 98 million.

USDA - Words Fail Me, Well Almost

The USDA are to revise their June 30th planting estimate for corn in the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio and Pennsylvania, it has been revealed.

You may recall that the anticipated planting delays that caused a shift away from corn failed to show up in the June 30th report when the USDA shocked the trade by increasing their estimate to a shade over 87 million acres. That was a million acres higher than the highest trade estimate, and almost three million above the average trade guess.

It would appear that they are now concerned that they might have overstated things. So we are now left in limbo until they issue their revised wild stab in the dark on August 12th.

And surely if the corn number is wrong, doesn't that also mean that the soybean figure is too? But no, they aren't even looking at issuing a revised bean number.

It is bizarre, is it not, that we hang on their every word, eagerly await their every missive. In reality we might as well ask our Alzheimers-riddled Grandad sat stinking of wee and Uncle Joe's Mintballs on his commode in the corner what his opinion is on this year's corn acreage.

And of course the market will react according to the projections of an, at best, misguided bunch of old loons stumbling around in the dark using forty year old technology to guide us.

I wouldn't accept a lift up the road from them, let alone base a trading strategy around what they've got to say.

How Accurate Are The USDA Wheat Numbers?

Friday's USDA wheat production estimates threw up some interesting questions, like exactly how accurate are they for a kick off.

The IGC has global 2009/10 ending stocks almost thirteen and a half million tonnes lower than the USDA's Friday estimate.

That's a pretty big difference is it not? AgResource said Friday that the USDA estimate is 12-16 MMT overstated.

In Russia, the USDA increased their production estimate to 60 MMT, yet SovEcon reduced theirs to 55-60 MMT, meaning that our chums (or is it chumps?) are now going in right at the top end of other analyst's estimates.

For Canada the USDA said 23.5 MMT, yet Agri-Food Canada also released their estimate Friday, coming out with a figure of only 22.1 MMT.

The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange say Argentina will produce only 6 MMT of wheat in 2009, yet the USDA say 9.5 MMT, over 50% more than the local exchange.

That potentially leaves the USDA overstating global production by up to 11 MMT this year, in just those three countries alone. Do they know what they are doing? That's another interesting question. How much wheat will Argentina export in 2009/10? Also another interesting question, it depends on what you mean by 2009/10.

Table A from the USDA says 2.5 MMT World Wheat, Flour, and Products Trade

Table B from the USDA says 4.0 MMT Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Table A clearly refers to the marketing year running from July 1st 2009 to June 30th 2010. Table B is a bit more vague, when to when in 2009/10 exactly it doesn't say. But it clearly says 9.5 MMT in the production column, so we are clearly talking the coming season. And how are they going to export what they aren't going to produce?

There's more questions than answers here.

USDA World Crop Production Numbers

In addition to US stocks data the USDA have also been consulting with clairvoyants for a stab at some fresh global crop production numbers, here's what they've come up with in MMT:

                     USDA Jul       USDA Jun
Australia wheat        23.00          23.00
Canada wheat           23.50          25.00
Argy wheat              9.50          11.00
China wheat           113.50         113.50
EU-27 wheat           134.65         135.96

So they've bitten some of the bullet and lopped 1.5 MMT off Canadian wheat, a not very daring 1.5 MMT off Argy wheat and 1.31 MMT off EU-27 wheat.

Production estimates for next season's South American beans are unchanged from the June estimate at 51 MMT for Argy and 60 MMT for Brazilian, that's an increase of 19 MMT for the Argies and 3 MMT for Brazil on 2008/09's crop.

USDA Supply & Demand Report

What have the USDA thrown at us this time? Here's the magic numbers:

                  USDA Jul   USDA Jun   Trade Range   Avg Est.
All wheat           2.112     2.106     2.076-2.167    2.107
Winter wheat        1.525     1.492     1.484-1.544    1.521
Spring wheat        0.507      NA       0.468-0.546    0.505
Durum               0.081      NA       0.082-0.088    0.085
--------------------------------------------------------------
08/09 US End Stocks   
Corn                1.600     1.600     1.600-1.850    1.692
Beans               0.110     0.110     0.086-0.130    0.107    
--------------------------------------------------------------
09/10 US End Stocks
Corn                1.550     1.090     1.290-1.828    1.567
Beans               0.250     0.210     0.115-0.384    0.229
Wheat               0.706     0.647     0.589-0.776    0.693

USDA WASDE Report Expectations

Those lovable scamps at the USDA are out with their July Supply & Demand report Friday, doubtless they've been working furiously to bring us the most accurate data possible. Here's a note of what the trade are expecting:

                  USDA Jun   Trade Range   Avg Est.
All wheat          2.106     2.076-2.167    2.107
Winter wheat       1.492     1.484-1.544    1.521
Spring wheat                 0.468-0.546    0.505
Durum                        0.082-0.088    0.085
-----------------------------------------------------
08/09 US End Stocks   
Corn               1.600     1.600-1.850    1.692
Beans              0.110     0.086-0.130    0.107
Wheat              0.669     
-----------------------------------------------------
09/10 US End Stocks
Corn               1.090     1.290-1.828    1.567
Beans              0.210     0.115-0.384    0.229
Wheat              0.647     0.589-0.776    0.693