Early Vibe

Like me the market is about to go for a dump17/02/11 -- Last night's CBOT market gathered a bit of upside momentum late in the session (although still closing lower) which has carried through to the overnight Globex market this morning. Wheat currently trades around 5c higher, with corn up 3-4c and beans 4-6c better.

After a couple of days of hefty shake-outs we'll probably see London and Paris wheat open a bit higher this morning I feel, aided by the overnight market. Whether they can maintain that momentum remains to be seen. The EU wheat market is looking tired.

Paris wheat may garner support from last night's news that French wheat did get a look-in at Egypt's latest tender late on last night.

It's London wheat that I'd expect to struggle the most. We've got a firmer pound on the back of potential interest rate rises before too long faced with rising inflation. We've also got the spectre of imports coming in if the existing duty gets scrapped next week and slack domestic demand with prices over GBP200/tonne.

On a global scale La Nina seems to be rapidly weakening, which appears to returning us to more like normal weather conditions around the world. Thank God.

Later today we've got the USDA out with their weekly export sales data and tonight we'll know how much wheat Brussels has issued export licences for this past week.