Nogger's Blog

04/04/11 -- Soybeans: May 11 soybeans closed at USD13.84, down 9 3/4 cents; Nov 11 soybeans were at USD13.89, down 1/4 cent; May 11 soybean meal ended at USD357.00, down USD3.90; May 11 soybean oil closed at 58.88, up 20 points. Beans were the poor relation on ideas that Chinese demand is switching to South America. There is continued talk of China cancellations/switching of existing purchases, that may lead the USDA to cut export projections for the current marketing year in Friday's WASDE report. The Brazilian harvest is well advanced at 67% complete, according to Celeres.

Corn: May 11 corn closed at USD7.60 1/4, up 24 1/4; Dec 11 corn finished at USD6.45 1/2, up 8 cents. The old crop/new crop spread continues to widen as the trade balances an extremely tight old crop supply situation against the second highest plantings since WWII for new crop. Fund buying was strong again, they were estimated to have bought 25,000 contracts today, meaning that they may have increased their net long by the best part of 100,000 lots since Thursday afternoon's USDA report. Friday's report from the USDA may cut ending stocks even further than they did last week the trade reckons.

Wheat: May 11 CBOT wheat ended at USD7.90, up 30 1/2 cents; May 11 KCBT wheat was at USD9.48, up 41 1/2 cents; May 11 MGEX Wheat finished at USD9.61 1/2, up 39 cents. It was another bad weekend weatherwise for US winter wheat, with high temperatures and strong winds likely causing further damage to an already vulnerable crop. After the close the USDA reported just 37% of the US winter wheat crop in good/excellent condition, compared to 65% a year ago. That was the lowest since 2002. They pegged 32% of the crop in poor/very poor condition against 6% last year.