EU Grains Closing Comments

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 18:33 | Categorized as

14/04/11 -- EU grains closed mostly lower with May London wheat down GBP2.25/tonne to GBP207.75/tonne and with new crop Nov falling GBP1.40 to GBP165.50/tonne. May Paris wheat declined EUR2.50/tonne to EUR237.75 and Nov was EUR0.75/tonne lower to EUR208.25/tonne.

Stratégie Grains forecast grain production in the EU-27 in 2011 at 289.8 MMT, up 6% on last year's 273.6 MMT. Wheat production will account for 143.6 MMT of that, also up 6% from 135.1 MMT in 2010.

UK wheat output will amount to 16.1 MMT, and increase of 8% on last season's 14.9 MMT. German production will total 25.8 MMT (up 11%) and French output will be 37.5 MMT (up 5%), they say.

EU barley production will rise 3% to 54.5 MMT, with UK output up 4% to 5.4 MMT, they add.

At one stage today UK feed wheat was trading at a premium to French milling wheat. Using an exchange rate of 1.1280 at the close, London wheat is still only marginally cheaper than superior quality French wheat.

FranceAgriMer say that the country will export a record 12.75 MMT of wheat to non-EU destinations in 2010/11. Ending stocks for the current season will finish at 2.3 MMT, they add.

The US agricultural attaché projects the rapeseed crop in the EU-27 at 20.8 MMT, up 2.5% on last year. Even so that still falls significantly short of domestic consumption projected at 23 MMT, necessitating an increase in imports for the coming season.