Nogger's Blog

14/04/11 -- The overnight grains closed lower with wheat down 14-16c, corn around 8c easier and soybeans down 11-13c. Crude is around a dollar lower whilst the USD is showing little change.

The USDA's weekly export sales report was bullish corn, bearish beans and neutral wheat.

Beans are staring to look like the poor relation, with export sales sluggish, production increases coming out of Brazil and demand from China not quite as insatiable as it has been.

The Chinese government are set to auction off 3 MMT of state-owned soybean reserves at knock-down prices. Crush margins are poor and processors there are said to be running at well below capacity as analysts reduce their projected soybean import estimates for the world's largest buyer a little.

China are said to have cancelled some cargoes of beans and be actively looking to reschedule others.

On a domestic front in the US, the March NOPA crush came in more than a million higher than trade estimates at 134.39 million bushels.

Higher than anticipated yields see the Paraguay agriculture ministry forecasting the nation's 2011 soybean crop now at a record 8.4 MMT, 1 MMT up on last year.

Snow and cold temperatures across the northern US Plains may bring some beneficial moisture as far south as northern Kansas, say QT Weather. That may help HRW wheat a little, but it will also further delay spring wheat and corn planting further north.

Stratégie Grains forecast grain production in the EU-27 in 2011 at 289.8 MMT, up 6% on last year's 273.6 MMT. Wheat production will account for 143.6 MMT of that, also up 6% from 135.1 MMT in 2010.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: corn down 5-7c, wheat down 12-14c, beans down 12-14c.