Nogger's Blog

10/05/11 -- Soybeans: May 11 soybeans closed at USD13.40, up 5 cents; May 11 soybean meal closed at USD346.30, up USD0.40; May 11 soybean oil closed at 56.49, up 51 points. Beans were up, but well off session highs, possibly as bulls curbed their enthusiasm to open fresh longs ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports. The trade is anticipating old crop US ending stocks will come in at 153 million bushels (from 140m last month) and new crop at 167 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production could come in even higher than last month's projected record 72 MMT and Chinese imports may be revised downwards from 57 MMT. World ending stocks for 2010/11 are seen rising slightly from 60.94 MMT to 61.55 MMT.

Corn: May 11 corn closed at USD7.06, up 1 1/2 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.52 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents. Tomorrow's USDA report is expected to show US old crop ending stocks at 661 million bushels, down slightly from 676 million last month, with 2011/12 ending stocks coming in at 808 million bushels. There are some suggestions that the recent slump in US weekly export sales may see US ending stocks come in higher than these trade estimates. Global ending stocks for 2010/11 are seen rising slightly to 122.75 MMT, with world 2011/12 ending stocks at 124.78 MMT.

Wheat: May 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD7.69, up 9 3/4 cents; May 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.32 1/2, up 22 1/2 cents; May 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.71, up 11 cents. Wheat was the strongest leg on the back of a decline in US winter wheat crop ratings overnight, combined with sluggish spring wheat plantings and EU crop concerns. Tomorrow's USDA reports are expected to show old crop wheat stocks marginally higher than last month at 845 million bushels, with new crop coming in at 658 million. World ending stocks for 2010/11 are seen falling around half a million to 182.31 MMT, with new crop coming in at 181.76 MMT.