Early Vibe

11/05/11 -- It's shaping up like a quiet one ahead of this afternoon's USDA numbers out at 13.30 BST. The overnight's aren't doing much at this stage, mostly a cent or two firmer, with crude also a bit firmer.

This is the USDA's first official stab at 2011/12 crop production, so it's anyone's guess what they might come up with. Not only will they be estimating US corn and soybean output this coming season but they should also throw out some projections for wheat production in Europe and the FSU too.

With all the assorted weather problems around at the moment there's plenty of opportunity to come out with something bullish - especially for wheat, maybe for corn and less likely for soybeans I'd say.

Other news is thin on the ground. We've had 17mm of rain so far in May up here in North Yorks, almost 4 1/2 times what we had in the whole of April, although the south east hasn't been anything like so fortunate.

Northern France and Germany have a good chance of rain later in the week, if they do get it how much good it will do is debatable.

CME Group are proposing to raise the limit on corn from the existing 30c to 40c, with the limit after a limit close being extended to 60c, I see.

Brazil's soybean crop estimates are still creeping up. Conab yesterday came out with a record 73.6 MMT, up 7.5% on last season and 1.6 MMT above last month's USDA number. Maybe that will get revised up today?

China only sold 21% of the wheat on offer at this week's auction.