Nogger's Blog

27/05/11 -- Soybeans: Jul 11 soybeans closed at USD13.79 3/4, down 5 cents; Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD13.68 1/2, down 4 cents; Jul 11 soybean meal closed at USD355.60, down USD4.70; Jul 11 soybean oil closed at 58.61, down 9 points. Beans closed a little lower in a light volume pre-holiday session. China's CNGOIC lowered it's 2010/11 soybean import estimate to 53 MMT, some 1.5 MMT lower than the USDA's latest estimate. The Chinese government also announced plans to sell 2 MMT of state-owned reserves to five favoured crushers at 13% below the market to enable them to meet soyoil price caps. That seems set to keep them out of the volume import market for a wee while yet. US markets are closed for Memorial Day on Monday, so the USDA will report on planting progress after the close on Tuesday May 31st.

Corn: Jul 11 corn closed at USD7.58 1/2, up 13 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.84, up 7 3/4 cents. July corn was down a cent on the week whilst new crop Dec was 17 1/2 cents higher. Private exporters announced the sale of 168,000 MT of new crop corn to Mexico. Funds bought an estimated 7,000 contracts on the day. They were long more than 350,000 contracts as of May 23rd, that's over 44.5 MMT. Things are finally set to improve weathewise in the Eastern Corn Belt which should aid corn planting. "The Midwest is forecast to warm up Sunday and Memorial Day. It's not perfect weather as showers also are in the forecast. On Monday highs over 90 F are predicted in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan which are much needed to dry out fields. An upper-air blocking pattern is starting to evolve. Improved warm weather in the Eastern Midwest early next week is a reflection of this change," say Martell Crop Projections.

Wheat: Jul 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD8.19 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD9.43, up 1/4 cent; Jul 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD10.56 1/4, up 10 1/2 cents. On the week as a whole CBOT wheat was up 13 1/4 cents, KCBT rose 9 3/4c and MGEX jumped 56 1/2c. Minneapolis raced to well over 20 cents higher in early trade but gave up half of those gains by the close of what could be a long weekend in a variety of different ways. Some newswires are suggesting that a decision on whether Russia will lift it's grain export embargo is due on Tuesday. If so that would come out before the daytime US grains futures next trade. Northern spring wheat farms are still too wet to plant, and more heavy rain fell again Friday. "More normal weather may finally develop over North America continent by the middle of next week. That's when the blocking pattern is expected to completely resolve," say Martell Crop Projections.