EU Grains Close

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 18:43 | Categorized as

27/05/11 -- EU wheat futures closed mostly lower with Jul London wheat up a nominal GBP0.50/tonne to GBP196.50/tonne and with new crop Nov falling GBP1.50/tonne to GBP197.00/tonne. Nov Paris wheat was down EUR1.75/tonne to EUR249.25/tonne whilst May12 declined EUR2.25/tonne to EUR249.00/tonne.

On the week as a whole Nov London wheat rose GBP2.50/tonne and Nov Paris wheat was up EUR4.50/tonne.

The UK picked up some decent rains this week, particularly in the north and west. Even the parched south east managed to get something, although opinions on how much good it will have done and what eventual production numbers might be vary wildly.

Front month August Paris rapeseed closed EUR3.50/tonne higher, having closed to the upside every day since May 12th as concerns mount over EU production this year.

French analysts Offre et Demande Agricole forecast the Ukraine rapeseed harvest rising to 1.95 MMT this year, up by a third from 1.47 MMT last year as rising yields more than offset a drop in planted area, according to FCStone.

That would allow Ukraine to export 1.8 MMT of rapeseed in 2011/12, they add. The EU look like needing all of that and more with French and German output set to fall sharply.

The balance of exporting power certainly seems to be switching back to the Black Sea for 2011/12. Ukraine may also export 11.5-12.0 MMT of wheat next season, up around 225-250% on 2010/11, according to a report on Bloomberg.