Nogger's Blog

26/05/11 -- The overnights closed firmer with wheat leading the way up 16c nearby, corn was up 4-5c and beans up 7-10c. Crude is a little lower and the dollar is weaker.

Weekly export sales came in at a combined 432,300 MT for wheat (against expectations of 400-700,000 MT); 779,600 MT for corn (500-900,000 MT) and 163,200 MT for beans (150-325,000 MT).

Lurking in amongst that lot was a 116,800 MT corn sale to China, switched from unknown. Huge it isn't, but the bulls won't care about that.

The bulls have the upside momentum, there's little doubt about that. Yet somehow I just feel that for all this planting delays, we're gonna lose 2 million acres of corn Oh Lordy rhetoric that's kicking around most of it will get into the ground one way or another. Prices will see to that.

The IGC have just released their latest blind stab in the dark, pegging world wheat production at 667 MMT, 5 MMT lower than last month and 3 MMT below the USDA. Consumption will also fall 3 MMT from that predicted last month, with carryover stocks down 1 MMT to a still healthy 185 MMT, they say.

Corn production is seen up 1 MMT from last month, with consumption falling 1 MMT and ending stocks rising 5 MMT to 116 MMT from what they reckoned in April.

EU-27 wheat production was reduced 3 MMT to 141.1 MMT, with barley output cut by just 0.6 MMT to 54.3 MMT.

They haven't got a clue have they, bless. I have this mental image of them all sat round in huge wing-backed leather arm chairs in an oak panelled gentleman's club somewhere, large whiskey in one hand with the other drawing balls out of a black felt bag. A bit like the draw for the FA Cup, but without Gary Lineker.

They can't wait to get the draw out of the way 'cos there's a free bar and sandwiches on in the other room.

"What size do you fancy on the Russian wheat crop this year Roderick?"

"Buggered if I know old bean, pass the vol au vents will you there's a good stick, what, what, what. I think I need the loo, where's the gents in this place. Nah, bugger it, too late. Clean that up will you old chap and get me another G&T after you've washed your hands...I knew a Russian girl once you know, Eva she was called, enormous whatdoyoucallits....Where am I again? Ah yes drawing the FA Cup...Charlton, are they still in it?"

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 15-17c, corn up 4-6c, beans up 8-10c.