Nogger's Blog

22/06/11 -- Jul 11 soybeans closed at USD13.30 1/4, down 18 1/2 cents; Nov 11 soybeans closed at USD13.32 1/2, down 17 1/4 cents; Jul 11 soybean meal closed at USD347.10, down USD4.60; Jul 11 soybean oil closed at 56.15, down 45 points. The soy complex actually finished much better than it's compatriots of wheat and corn. Even so, initial reports of warmer and drier weather somehow got construed as being bullish for beans, despite the fact that this is exactly what much of the Midwest has been crying out for. Crude oil was firmer which helped beans avoid the bloodbath that beset corn and wheat. Funds sold an estimated 7,000 bean contracts on the day.

Corn: Jul 11 corn closed at USD6.77 1/2, down the daily 30 cent limit; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.50 1/4, also down the daily 30 cent limit. Funds were said to have sold an estimated 30,000 contracts on the day. They were supposed to have been net sellers of 50,000 last week, and maybe to have bought around 18-20,000 lots Monday/Tuesday. If we go with the upper end of that estimate then we have them selling 60,000 since Mon 13th, that's 7.6 MMT. Estimates for tomorrow’s weekly export sales report range from 600 TMT to 1.25 MMT.

Wheat: Jul 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD6.38 1/4, down 36 cents; Jul 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD7.70, down 33 1/2 cents; Jul 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD8.60 1/2, down 42 1/4 cents. We haven't seen front month CBOT wheat this low since mid-November, and then only marginally so for two days, before that we have to go back to late July, almost twelve months ago. Russia is back flexing it's wheat muscles selling delivered to Tunisia for less than the cost of FOB US wheat. Estimates for tomorrow’s weekly USDA export sales report range from 300 to 700 MT.