Nogger's Blog

30/06/11 -- Soybeans: Jul 11 soybeans closed at USD13.06 1/4, down 28 cents; Nov 11 soybeans closed at USD12.94, down 29 cents; Jul 11 soybean meal closed at USD332.20, down USD5.70; Jul 11 soybean oil closed at 55.04, down 79 points. The USDA's June 1st stocks were above the average trade estimate at 619 billion bushels. Planted area was down 1.4 million from March ideas at 75.2 million acres. Even so spillover weakness from corn was so great that soybeans couldn't avoid the fallout. The USDA pegged weekly soybean export sales at 122,500 MT, a bit below expectations of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.

Corn: Jul 11 corn closed at USD6.29, down 69 cents; Dec 11 corn closed at USD6.20 1/2, down the 30 cent daily limit. The USDA shocked the market with a corn acreage and June 1st stocks number both in excess of even the largest trade estimate. The acreage number was in fact the second highest since the war. Funds liquidated an estimated 35,000 contracts on the day, the equivalent of around 4.5 MMT. Weekly export sales came in at 934,300 MT for corn, towards the top end of expectations of 650,000 to 950,000 MT. If the funds want out then there is very little that the market can do to correct that, they built this house of cards.

Wheat: Jul 11 CBOT wheat closed at USD5.84 3/4, down 56 1/2 cents; Jul 11 KCBT wheat closed at USD6.88 3/4, down 56 1/4 cents; Jul 11 MGEX wheat closed at USD8.23 1/4, down 52 3/4 cents. The June 1st stocks figures from the USDA were above the average trade estimate whilst the planted area was broadly in line with what was expected. Very bearish corn numbers also pressured wheat. Weekly export sales of 545,100 MT for wheat were low compared with expectations of 550,000 to 750,000 MT.