The Early Vibe

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 07:09 | Categorized as

01/07/11 -- The shakeout seems to have settled judged on the overnight action so far. September corn, for which today's revised limit is 45 cents, currently stands 40 cents lower, with new crop months around 30 cents easier. Wheat hovers around unchanged and soybeans are 10-12 cents firmer.

Front month July corn is flat so in effect we've seen old crop months lose 70 cents and new crop 60 cents on the back of yesterday's USDA numbers.

On the week as a whole so far that puts old crop July corn down around 40 cents and Dec down 45 cents. CBOT wheat is 54 cents weaker and soybeans barely changed.

Last night's shakeout means that we've now had three successive weeks of heavy fund liquidation on corn.

Further bearish influence on the corn market is news that the IGC have raised their 2011/12 world production estimate by 15 MMT to 858 MMT largely due to Chinese and US production being revised higher.

World wheat production for the coming season was also raised 3 MMT to 666 MMT and ending stocks upped 3 MMT to 185 MMT.

A reminder that it's a three day weekend in the US with Independence Day on Monday.

In Europe on the week so far we see Nov London wheat down GBP6.45/tonne and Nov Paris wheat EUR11.25/tonne. That's narrowed the gap between the two to the equivalent of EUR11.00/tonne, at the beginning of June that was over EUR22.00/tonne.

Greece voted through its detailed austerity measures by 155-135 votes yesterday to secure the next tranche of cash from the EU/IMF averting a euro crisis for now.