Nogger's Blog

02/06/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with wheat around 6-10c firmer, beans up 3-5c and corn trading fractions either side.

Crude is slightly firmer and the dollar a tad weaker. The USDA weekly export sales report is delayed until tomorrow after Monday's Memorial Day holiday. Also out tomorrow are some pretty important US jobs numbers, the vibe is that they could send the dollar into a tailspin.

Fresh news is pretty limited. Algeria are tendering for 50,000 MT of any origin wheat with the results expected any day now. It will be interesting to see if the Black Sea gets the nod, and if so exactly how much cheaper than EU/US origin they are. Lebanon are also said to be in the market.

Wheat's overnight action can probably be attributed to nothing more than a rebound from 60c losses since last Friday after the Russian export ban was lifted over the long weekend.

Linn Group put out some pretty bearish planting numbers for corn, beans and wheat yesterday. They can't be right on all three can they?

Things certainly look pretty washed out in Canada too at the moment it has to be said.

It seems like we are about to see the global grains supply pipeline switch from West to East. The West was only too happy to accept the baton from the East last summer, and wheat prices have moved up more than three dollars a bushel since then.

The question now is how will prices fare with the "lookie, lookie, for you I make special price" men of the East back in charge of the game?

Whilst we are considering that one, there's also the point that the futures markets that are driving the bus are still located in the West. That may mean that they are more likely to concentrate on what is happening here (ie production problems), than what is happening there (ie the shops are open 24/7 and the sales are on).

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: wheat up 7-10c, beans up 3-5c, corn 2c higher to 2c lower.