Morning Musings

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:41 | Categorized as

09/06/11 -- It's all about the USDA today. What are the possibilities of them throwing us a curve ball? Pretty high if the recent past is anything to go by, here's a note of what the trade is anticipating:


































































































































































US Ending Stock Estimates 2010/11 (Billion Buhels):
 

USDA

Jun 11

Avg Est
Range

USDA

May 11

USDA 09/10
Corn
-
0.706
0.565-0.780
0.730
1.708
Beans
-
0.176
0.142-0.195
0.170
0.151
Wheat
-
0.842
0.824-0.868
0.839
0.976
US Ending Stock Estimates 2011/12 (Billion Buhels):
 

USDA

Jun 11

Avg Est
Range

USDA

May 11

Corn
-
0.771
0.520-0.950
0.900
Beans
-
0.170
0.124-0.214
0.160
Wheat
-
0.659
0.495-0.742
0.702
US Winter Wheat Production 2011/12 (Billion Bushels):
 

USDA

Jun 11

Avg Est
Range

USDA

May 11

USDA 10/11
All wheat
-
2.009
1.905-2.100
2.043
2.220
World Ending Stock Estimates 2010/11 (MMT):
 

USDA

Jun 11

USDA

May 11

USDA 09/10
  
Corn
-
122.19
145.80
  
Beans
-
63.81
58.88
  
Wheat
-
182.20
197.91
  
World Ending Stock Estimates 2011/12 (MMT):
 

USDA

Jun 11

USDA

May 11

   
Corn
-
129.14
   
Beans
-
61.85
   
Wheat
-
181.26
   


In addition to that little lot we also have weekly export sales where the trade is looking for wheat sales of 200-400 TMT, corn sales of 550-900 TMT and bean sales of 150-350 TMT.

On top of that there are global production numbers to tweak. Last month they had EU-27 wheat production at 138.6 MMT for the coming season, that will surely be reduced. FSU-12 wheat production was pegged at 100.6 MMT last time. We may also see an upward revision on 2010/11 (and even 2011/12) soybean production from Brazil which are currently pegged at 73.0 MMT and 72.5 MMT respectively.

Whilst the outrageous corn bulls are looking for ending stocks to tighten in both marketing years the current pace of US exports offers the possibility to increase 2010/11 ending stocks, and therefore the carry-in from this season into next.

A bearish surprise for corn would be interesting given the size of speculative length in the market. A bullish surprise would no doubt whip up enough hysteria to sent corn soaring again. That would probably be most likely to come from a reduction in US production in 2011.

Wheat would appear to have more potential to be bullish than bearish, US production should fall and exports might rise on the back of a fall in EU-27 output and exports. Production and export estimates out of the Black Sea will also be of interest.

Soybeans appear to have the least potential for a bullish surprise.

The numbers are out at 13.30 BST and I will be posting them up here as fast as my little fingers can type.