Nogger's Blog

29/07/11 -- Soybeans: Aug 11 Soybeans closed at USD13.54 1/4, down 13 1/2 cents; Nov 11 Soybeans closed at USD13.57 1/4, down 14 1/4 cents; Aug 11 Soybean Meal closed at USD351.60, down USD3.70; Aug 11 Soybean Oil closed at 55.65, down 11 points. On the week Nov beans were down 41 cents. US weather forecasts are looking far less threatening than they did a week or so ago prompting funds to sell an estimated further 5,000 soybean contracts on the day. The US debt ceiling negotiations drag on and it's all starting to look rather disconcerting. The longer this takes to sort out the more questionable it seems that the US can muster any kind of bipartisan support for dealing with the deficit issue.

Corn: Sep 11 Corn closed at USD6.65 1/2, down 16 3/4 cents; Dec 11 Corn closed at USD6.68 3/4, down 17 1/2 cents. On the week Sep corn was down 24 1/2 cents and Dec fell 16 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have dumped 14,000 contacts on the day as weather forecasts turned more benign. As with beans the US debt ceiling issue is keeping the market very nervous. Confidence was running quite high that something may be resolved be tonight, but that is now starting to look less likely. If, and this seemed like a very large if a week or two ago, but if there is no consensus then exactly how the market will react to a US default is very uncertain.

Wheat: Sep 11 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.72 1/2, down 20 3/4 cents; Sep 11 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.67, down 16 1/2 cents; Sep 11 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.30 3/4, down 16 cents. CBOT wheat was down 19 3/4 cents on the week. US spring wheat potential is declining, but export competitiveness is also. The bullish story relating to US wheat also seems to be losing influence in international circles. Egypt bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat again today, their fourth clean sweep in succession since the turn of the month. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 CBOT contracts today.