Nogger's Blog

11/07/11 -- The overnight grains began the week lower with beans down around 6-8 cents, wheat 15-18 cents easier and corn mostly 7-9 cents weaker.

Crude oil is almost a dollar and a half lower and the USD is steady. Crude is down on renewed global economic concerns. Demand from China where inflation and interest rates keep rising is a worry, as too are European debt concerns.

Russia's grain crop is getting larger, and may not be too far off 2009 production levels it now seems. Early yields are better than expected and recent rains have improved spring crop prospects.

In Ukraine too the outlook seems to have improved.

Having staged an "up week" last week it may be time for traders to take some money off the table ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports.

There seems to be some hope amongst the bulls that they will take back what they gave in June as far as corn stocks are concerned. It wouldn't be the first time, but by now we should all know that you can't second guess the USDA. They are just as likely to have a bearish report up their sleeves as a bullish one.

The recent hefty outflow of fund money suggests that they don't fancy playing this game for the time being. That may be more significant for prices than anything the USDA have to say tomorrow.

A few are trying to get a bullish story going with the US weather with "dryness concerns" and a "developing heat dome" that is featuring in some headlines. Yet only a couple of weeks ago those same participants were moaning about conditions being too cold and wet. A bit of heat isn't going to hurt too much just yet surely.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans 6-8c lower, corn down 7-9c and wheat down 15-17c.