Early Call On Chicago

28/07/11 -- The overnight grains finished mixed with wheat 5-7c higher, beans narrowly either side and corn 1-3c easier.

The USDA's weekly export sales came in with wheat sales of 473,800 MT for wheat (at the high end of expectations of 300 to 500 TMT), corn sales of 484,500 MT (below the 550 to 950 TMT expected) and soybean sales at 372,700 MT (550 to 850 TMT expected).

Nothing too exceptional amongst that lot really, although China showed up buying one cargo of wheat.

The International Grains Council have upped their 2011/12 world wheat production forecast by 8 MMT to 674 MMT and increased their ending stocks estimate by 5 MMT to 190 MMT. Corn production is up 1 MMT and carryover up 2 MMT.

Separately the Ukraine said that they'd end up with a 51 MMT grain harvest this year, a 30% rebound from last season and the highest estimate we've seen yet.

Elsewhere MARS say that the EU wheat harvest will be barely changed at 137 MMT this year, when most private estimates were around 130-132 MMT a month or two ago.

Yet despite all these extra tonnages coming out of the woodwork the market appears to want to try pushing higher this afternoon with London wheat up GBP2-3/tonne and Paris wheat up EUR4-5/tonne.

The June US soybean crush came in at 124.3 million bushels 0.8 million lower than expected, and rain moving across the Midwest today/tomorrow will be welcomed.

The USDA confirm the sale of 170,000 MT of corn to Japan.

Overall there seems to be more bearish than bullish news in amongst that lot, and that's besides the US debt ceiling problem still up in the air, yet early calls don't exactly see the market falling out of bed:

Wheat up 4-6c, corn down 3-4c, beans flat to 2c lower.