How Big Will Russia's Grain Exports Be In 2011/12?
25/07/11 -- About the only thing that everybody agrees on in answer to that question is "much larger than the USDA seem to think" at the moment.They've hit the ground running exporting 1.3 MMT of grains in the first three weeks of July, an increase of 160% on the same period in 2010.
SovEcon are forecasting 2011/12 Russian grain exports at 18 MMT, of which the vast majority, 16 MMT, will be wheat. That's four times the volume exported last season and 4 MMT higher than the USDA currently have factored into their calculations.
Assuming that SovEcon are correct, and I have to say that I'd have far more faith in them than the hapless USDA, then that potentially knocks 4 MMT off the USDA's export projections from other global sellers, notably the EU and US.
The Russian Grain Union are even more bullish, raising their grain production estimate to 89-92 MMT and pegging exports at 18-20 MMT. They forecast exports of 1.8-1.9 MMT this month, rising to 2.5-3.0 MMT each in August and September.
