Nogger's Blog

25/07/11 -- The overnight grains finished lower with beans down around 10c, wheat down 7-8c and corn 7-9c easier. Crude oil is a dollar lower.

The market is concerned that the US debt ceiling issue hasn't yet been resolved. Whilst nobody seriously expects a default, massive spending cuts ARE a possibility, and one that wouldn't be good for the US economy with unemployment already nudging 10%.

The most likely scenario however IS a grudging rise in the ceiling. As with the latest "resolution" to the Greek debt crisis that will just be delaying the inevitable pain that WILL come home to roost one day.

A lot like Tony Blair, Barak Obama may be thinking, ha ha, at least it won't be me in charge when this shit hits the fan.

Weather reports suggest that the weekend saw a bit more rain than some had feared. Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio all got better than expected weekend moisture totals. The outlook for this week isn't quite as warm as was forecast last week either

Still, some kind of downgrade in weekly crop conditions can be expected from the USDA tonight.

That news won't come until after the close however, so we may finish lower tonight and have another turnaround Tuesday tomorrow.

Meanwhile Russia's grain production and export forecasts keep increasing, at least some of which will surely be to the detriment of US export prospects.

Early calls for this afternoon's CBOT session: beans and corn down 8-10c, wheat down 5-7c.